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Journalism of Courage
As the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) seeks a third term on the back of consecutive near-sweeps in the 2015 and 2020 Delhi Assembly polls, the seats where the ruling party has seen its margins and vote shares drop between these two elections could hold the key for a potential return to power.
In 2015, the AAP had won 67 of Delhi’s 70 Assembly seats, and then followed up in 2020 with wins in 62 seats. Between 2015 and 2020, though it won five fewer seats, the party retained 61 constituencies and won one new seat
But in a majority of these 61 retained seats, the AAP saw its winning margins and vote shares drop. While its vote share fell in 32 seats, its margin dropped in 42 seats. In almost all of these seats, the BJP recorded an increase in its vote share.
At eight seats, North West Delhi district had the highest concentration of seats where the AAP’s vote share fell, followed by six each in South and West Delhi districts.
In 14 seats, the AAP’s vote share fell by more than 5-percentage points – the biggest decline coming in North West Delhi’s Kirari constituency, at 11.89-percentage points.
[MAP: Change in AAP’s vote share]
Across the 32 seats where the AAP’s vote share fell between 2015 and 2020, the BJP saw its vote share increase in 29 seats and the Congress in five seats. In 10 of these seats, the BJP’s vote share rose by more than 10-percentage points, including three seats each in North West and South Delhi districts; and by more than 5-percentage points in 23 seats, including eight in North West Delhi.
The BJP recorded its highest increases in vote shares in Patparganj (13.95-percentage points), Kirari (13.35), Vikaspuri (12.52), Tughlakabad (12.07), and Adarsh Nagar (12.02). Incidentally, the AAP moved its former deputy CM Manish Sisodia from Patparganj seat to Jangpura this time.
Overall, from 2015 to 2020, the BJP saw its vote share increase in 62 seats, including 18 seats by more than 10-percentage points. In contrast, the Congress saw its vote share decline in 60 seats between the two Assembly elections.
[MAP: Change in BJP’s vote share]
In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP was able to increase its vote share in all 67 Assembly segments that it had contested in the 2020 Assembly elections en route to winning all seven of Delhi’s parliamentary seats for a third consecutive time. In 54 Assembly segments, the BJP’s vote share rose by more than 10-percentage points over the 2020 Assembly elections.
In terms of winning margins, too, the AAP recorded declines in 42 seats from 2015 to 2020. The party’s average margin fell from almost 28,700 votes to just over 22,000 votes. In all but one seat where the AAP’s margin fell, the BJP recorded an increase in its vote share.
In 24 seats, the AAP’s margin fell by more than 10,000 votes. There were seven such seats in North West Delhi district, and five each in West and South Delhi districts. In six seats – Bijwasan, Adarsh Nagar, Kasturba Nagar, Patparganj, Shalimar Bagh and Chhatarpur – the AAP’s decline was enough to bring the margin below 5,000 votes. The biggest drop in the margin came in Kirari, where the AAP went from winning by over 45,000 votes in 2015 to just over 5,650 votes in 2020.
The AAP will draw comfort from the fact that its margins increased in 19 seats, including by more than 10,000 votes in four seats. The party’s vote share also rose in 29 seats, including in seven by more than 5-percentage points.
What the parties are expecting
According to Congress sources, the party is hoping its vote share will rise in around 28 of the capital’s 70 Assembly seats. Its campaign concentrated on the concerns of SC, ST, OBC and minority voters in addition to “soft Hindutva” as well as the Delhi Nyay Yatra,
The Congress was “very confident”, according to insiders, of winning seats such as New Delhi, Kalkaji, Seemapuri, Samaypur Badli, Patparganj and Kasturba Nagar. However, between 2015 and 2020, the party saw its vote share decline in each of these seats barring Kasturba Nagar, where its vote share rose by 10-percentage points.
Seats where the Congress sources said the party was expecting “a good vote share” were Matia Mahal, Okhla, Jangpura, Babarpur, Mustafabad, Seelampur, Nangloi Jat, Sultanpur Majra and Bawana. But the party’s vote share dipped in all these seats from 2015 to 2019, including by as much as 28.8% in Mustafabad and 22.9% in Matia Mahal.
Several of these seats have large Muslim populations.
While the Congress is facing the AAP’s Sisodia in Jangpura, in New Delhi, the candidate list includes former AAP CM Arvind Kejriwal.
Apart from these, Congress sources said, they were “mostly confident” of claiming a “satisfactory vote share” in seats such as Ballimaran, Chandni Chowk, Sadar Bazar, Trilokpuri, Kondli, Bijwasan, Mangolpuri, Uttam Nagar, Wazirpur, Adarsh Nagar and Sangam Vihar. From 2015 to 2020, the party’s vote share fell in eight of these seats and remained stable in two.
“A majority of the seats that the Congress is confident of being ahead on are those where no developmental projects have been delivered by the AAP government, making its sitting MLAs immensely unpopular. It is a triangular fight in (28 such seats),” a senior Congress leader said.
On the other hand, BJP insiders said the party was most confident on Assembly seats falling under Lok Sabha segments where it had claimed a significant winning margin over INDIA bloc candidates in the 2024 general elections.
A majority of these, a senior BJP leader said, fell under the North West Delhi Parliamentary segment, where its winning margin was the highest at over 19%, followed by West and South Delhi, in addition to Chandni Chowk. In all but five of the 40 Assembly segments that fall within these Lok Sabha seats, the BJP’s vote share increased by more than 10-percentage points between 2020 and 2024.
“The logic is simple: Voters from these Assembly seats had voted for the BJP on the basis of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s face during the Lok Sabha elections, which were conducted just a few months ago. (Modi) remains the party’s main face for the Delhi Assembly elections alongside the same momentum,” the leader said. “Coupled with the projection of new schemes as the PM’s own guarantees as well as the assurance that ongoing welfare schemes will continue in Delhi, we are more than confident that the same voters who chose the BJP a few months ago will choose it again,” the leader added.
Last year, in the North West Delhi Lok Sabha seat, for instance, the BJP had secured more than 60% of the vote share in three of its 10 Assembly segments, and more than 50% vote share in nine segments. In the West Delhi Lok Sabha seats, the BJP got more than 50% of the vote share in eight of its 10 Assembly segments. In Chandni Chowk, the party’s vote share exceeded 60% in five segments. In the South Delhi parliamentary seat, its vote share was above 50% in six segments.
“We are more than confident that the BJP will claim the highest vote share, or record an increase in it compared to the 2020 Assembly elections, on over 45 seats in the city,” a party source said.
This, even as AAP national convener Arvind Kejriwal, in a post on X, stated, “According to my estimate, the AAP is going to get 55 seats but if women put in a lot of effort – everyone should go out to vote and convince the men in their house to vote for Aam Aadmi Party – then it can get more than 60 seats.”
According to AAP sources, the party’s thrust had been on “significant seats” such as New Delhi, Jangpura, Kalkaji and Greater Kailash among others. “In addition to the Kejriwal factor – his overall popularity – we have concentrated on seats where we sensed anti-incumbency of our sitting MLAs who were finally replaced by more popular individuals,” an AAP insider said.
