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Journalism of Courage
Projection of another hung Assembly will not surprise any Uttar Pradesh watcher. The last time any party got a clear majority in an Assembly election in the state was in 1991. Politics of caste polarization, absence of fresh agendas and impossible personal egos have closed the possibility of a stable majority in the state.
The run-up to this Assembly election promised something different as the BSP took an early lead. It appeared that Mayawati’s experiment of forging a Dalit-upper caste alliance was opening the possibility of a majority. But a comprehensive pre-poll survey conducted at the starting point of the race almost rules out this possibility. The Indian Express – CNN-IBN – CSDS pre-poll survey of Uttar Pradesh points to a two-horse race that is likely to end in yet another hung Assembly.
If the elections were held in the entire state in the third week of March, the SP and the BSP would have been the front-runners, leaving all others far behind.
Surprisingly, the ruling SP was marginally ahead of the BSP by about one percentage point and was likely to end where it was last time, around 145-155 seats. The BSP appeared set for its best ever performance, but well short of the magical figure of 202 seats. It was likely to end between 140-150 seats.
The BJP and the Congress are at risk of falling off the chart.
Despite getting Kalyan Singh back and its carefully crafted alliance with the Apna Dal, the BJP was a poor third in the race, about 10 percentage points behind the two front-runners. This could bring the BJP down to about 45-55 seats, its worst performance in the last two decades.
The Congress, too, does not appear to be in a position to translate its potential support into votes and was not placed any better than its worst-ever show in 2002. The remaining 30-40 seats were likely to go to others and independents including Ajit Singh’s RLD and Raj Babbar’s Jan Morcha.
If this is what indeed happens in the elections, the SP gets the first shot at forming the government. But having burnt its bridges with the BSP and the Congress, it might need to enter into a coalition with the BJP and risk its Muslim vote base.
The BSP would need support from the Congress and all other parties or from the BJP and some others to form the government. The BJP, therefore, may hold a pivotal position in the exercise of government formation.
But don’t take out your calculators right away. For this is not a forecast of what the election result will be on May 11 when the votes are finally counted. This is only a projection of how the race stands at its starting point.
At that point, about 10 per cent of the voters had not even heard about the ensuing elections. Most of the voters did not know their candidates. About a quarter said that the candidate could make a difference to their choice. Also remember Punjab and Uttarakhand, where the ruling party appeared stronger in pre-poll assessments than in the actual results. And, finally, let us not forget that every single poll projection in UP in the last decade has under-estimated the BSP.
In a close race like this, an error or a shift of 2-3 percentage points can make all the difference. Opinion polls, including a comprehensive and randomized poll like this one, cannot be relied upon to pick such small gaps and movements.
Here is what can make a difference between now and the counting day:
• Lower OBC and Muslim voters are not so firm in their choice as yet and could swing closer to the election day.
• The Congress stands to gain if voters, especially the Muslim voters, shift from their first preference to their second preference.
• Voters are generally unhappy with their sitting MLA. This local level incumbency disadvantage could hurt the SP that has the largest number of sitting MLAs.
• The poll was done before Rahul Gandhi’s road shows began. If his popularity goes up, it can help the Congress marginally.
• More than a quarter of those interviewed said they were not very sure of whether they will vote at all. UP tends to have very low turnout and a differential pattern of non-voting could prove critical.
• The poll may have under-estimated parties like the Apna Dal and Jan Morcha that do not have a fixed symbol.
In other words, you need to wait for the extensive exit-cum-post poll survey that The Indian Express – CNN-IBN – CSDS team plans to carry out. Or, perhaps, for May 11, if you wish to get your arithmetic right.
Survey methodology
The Indian Express-CNN-IBN-CSDS Poll was conducted in 305 locations spread across 79 Assembly constituencies in Uttar Pradesh between March 19 and 23. The constituencies and the polling station areas were selected by random (probability proportionate to size) sampling.
A sample of 11,060 names was drawn randomly from the electoral rolls of the sampled polling booths. Of these 4,988 respondents were interviewed face-to-face at their residence using a structured questionnaire. The survey could not be conducted in Dhampur Assembly constituency and three polling stations of Sikandra Rao constituency due to unavailability of the revised electoral rolls.
The final sample was fairly representative of the social and regional diversity of the state. There was under-representation of some sections of the electorate: 43% women (against 47% in the state), 13% Muslims (against 18% in the state) and 11% urban (against 21% in the state). This was corrected by statistical weightage.
The fieldwork of the survey was coordinated by A K Verma (Uttar Pradesh Central), Mirza Asmer Beg (Uttar Pradesh West) and Sudhir Kumar (Uttar Pradesh East). Sanjay Kumar of Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi directed the survey. The Central team which designed, coordinated and analyzed the survey comprised Yogendra Yadav, Himanshu Bhattacharya, K A Q A Hilal, Kanchan Malhotra, Sanjeer Alam, Praveen Rai and Vikas Gautam of CSDS and Rajeeva Karandikar of Cranes Software International Limited.
