ISLAMABAD, Oct 15: As India and Pakistan recommence their official dialogue tomorrow after a gap of one year, indications are that some tangible progress towards an understanding on certain new confidence building measures (CBMs) in the nuclear and military fields would be made but no headway is expected on the intractable issue of Jammu and Kashmir.
Foreign secretary K Raghunath will lead the Indian delegation at the talks with his Pakistani counterpart Shamshad Ahmed that would mark the beginning of the “composite dialogue” they had agreed upon in New York on September 23 for resolving outstanding problems.
In the first part of the dialogue, the twin issues of peace and security, including the CBMs, and Jammu and Kashmir would be taken up by the two foreign secretaries.
This will be for the first time that the two officials would devote an exclusive session to the vexed issue of Jammu and Kashmir although neither side expects any breakthrough in the first meeting.
Informed sources said both Indiaand Pakistan will put forward their own sets of CBMs in the nuclear, missile and military fields to lesson the “gross mistrust” on both sides and to reduce the risk of a war, especially when the two countries have recently acquired the capability to manufacture nuclear weapons.
While Pakistan is certain to come up with CBMs limited to the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir, the Indian side would approach the issue in a broader perspective keeping in view the security situation in South Asia.
On Jammu and Kashmir, Raghunath is expected to confront Ahmed with documentary evidence of Pakistan’s unabashed abetment and sponsorship of terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir since 1989 that has led to the present troubled situation in the State.
However, Pakistan is likely to reiterate its demand for the right of self-determination for the people of the Kashmir Valley and withdrawal of Indian troops from Jammu and Kashmir.
India will counter these demands by stating in unmistakable terms that the State was anintegral part of the country and the only problem to be resolved related to the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
On the first day of the talks, the two foreign secretaries will deal with the issue of peace and security in two sessions and tackle the problem of Jammu and Kashmir the next day.
The two sides are expected to issue a joint statement on October 18. Besides the foreign secretary, the eight-member Indian delegation to the talks will comprise K M R Vivek Katju, joint secretary looking after Pakistan, Rakesh Sood, joint secretary (disarmament) in the External Affairs Ministry, and R S Jassal, joint secretary in the Defence Ministry. India’s High Commissioner to Pakistan Satish Chandra will also be present at the talks.
The Pakistan foreign secretary will be assisted by senior officials in the foreign and defence ministries and Pakistan High Commissioner in New Delhi Ashraf Jehangir Kazi.
The second part of the resumed composite dialogue will be held in New Delhi from November 5 to 13 when other sixoutstanding issues would discussed at the level of various secretaries to the governments of India and Pakistan.
These are: Siachen, Wullar barrage/Tulbul navigation project, Sir Creek, terrorism and drug trafficking, economic and commercial cooperation and promotion of friendly exchanges in various fields. In New York, ithe foreign secretaries had announced the modalities to deal with these issues after a meeting between Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
The official dialogue between the two countries was stalled in September last year in New Delhi when the Pakistani side insisted on setting up a working group on the problem of Jammu and Kashmir in terms of the agreement reached between the foreign secretaries in Islamabad earlier on June 23 when eight issues were identified on which the two countries had differences.
The June 23 agreement spoke of setting up working groups on the issues identified and also that those of peace and security and Jammu andKashmir would be dealt with by the foreign secretaries.
As a concession to Pakistan, India agreed to a discussion of the two issues separately by the foreign secretaries followed by a second round at which the other six issues would be discussed.