Fears of a fractured identity

The Congress managed to bag a mere 51 out of 140 seats. But the Utkal Congress of Biju Patnaik, Swatantra Party and Jharkhand party weaved in a coalition that outnumbered the Congress to wrest power in the state assembly with Biswanath Das—an independent becoming the chief minister.

‘‘The big question this time is that is political history going to repeat itself when the state goes for a simultaneous election in 2004?’’ asks Prof S.N. Misra of Department of Political Science in Utkal University. ‘‘I will not be surprised if there is a repeat of 1971 in some form or other,’’ he says—‘‘a split mandate.” The build up to the polls, the alignment of political forces, the effect of various national and regional factors, combine to indicate that the electorate might reflect a split choice this time, too, he adds.

At the core of such a scenario is the re-emergence of J B Patnaik of Congress from near oblivion to a position of eminence. With Digvijay Singh, the former chief minister of Madhya Pradesh by his side as the AICC-appointed observer for the state, J B Patnaik is probably fighting his last political battle and he is in command.

The BJD minister for Works in Naveen Patnaik cabinet, Kalandi Behera aptly described JB’s return at a public meeting in Salehpur near Cuttack recently: ‘‘He was sleeping like a snake in the sand. He has suddenly risen from slumber. But just remember the older the snake, the deadlier is the venom.’’

J.B. Patnaik’s manipulations are already in place, say sources. For instance, in his bid to ensure that the anti-BJD-BJP votes do not get divided with the emergence of a third front, he has quietly been playing his cards. His success is reflected in virtual dissolution of an emerging third front with Orissa Gana Parishad as the nucleus. ‘‘He effected a couple of key defections from OGP to the Congress that opened a floodgate. Some leaders went to the other side but the third front virtually dissolved after that,’’ says a Congress leader.

And Patnaik is not alone. This time he is joined by a slew of shrewd political heavyweights of Orissa. Thanks to BJP’s strict adherence to the coalition ‘‘dharma’’ of not accommodating leaders expelled from the BJD, veteran war horses like Dilip Roy, Ramakrushna Patnaik, Nalini Mohanty and many others have flocked to the Congress.

An unusually high interest among lower and middle rung leaders for Congress party ticket is sighted by some as a measure of the outfit’s resurgence to certain extent. According to party sources as many as 1,200 aspirants filed in their CVs to the party leadership along with non-refundable deposits .

Yet another favourable factor for the Congress is its alliance with tribal outfits. In Mayurbhanj, for example, the BJP has suffered disintegration and the Congress is capitializing on it. The BJP had done extremely well in the tribal belts in the last election. But this time many of their candidates stand discredited and there had been cases of desertions as well.

But the BJD-BJP camp is not willing to buy such arguments. ‘‘Only those political heavyweights have flocked to the Congress camp who have been expelled from the BJD and are already tainted in the public eye,’’ says Joggeshwar Babu, a BJD spokesman. The rehabilitation of these leaders in the Congress only goes to embarrass the Congress party’s loyal supporters and leaders.