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Journalism of Courage
NEW DELHI, Sept 22: The Union Cabinet’s recommendation to the President to dismiss the Rabri government and impose Central rule in Bihar has in one stroke consolidated the anti-BJP forces in Bihar and may pave the way for a national alliance between the Congress, the Left parties and the Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha.
The use of Article 356 in the state — if the President agrees to it and there are indications that K R Narayanan may not block the move and may at best seek clarifications from the government — will bring together these parties in the state. The President however will not take a decision before he has consulted various parties and legal opinion, particularly as the Rabri Ministry proved its majority on the floor of the house only yesterday.
While the BJP’s action may give a fillip to Laloo Yadav, who has already used the Vananchal card to his advantage, the Congress could turn out to be the biggest loser in the polarisation which now seems to be on the anvil. As it is, the Congress isfinding decision-making very difficult. It first supported Vananchal, then allowed its legislators to vote according to their conscience and shortly thereafter voted for the Rabri government which had opposed the creation of Vananchal.
The impact its ambivalent stand in Bihar will have on the tribals in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, both going to the polls the year-end, remains to be seen.
A compelling reason for the BJP was to keep its upper caste base in Bihar intact. During the elections earlier this year it had promised to send the Bihar government packing in 72 hours. With no action even after six months, the upper castes, particularly the more articulate Bhumihars, were getting restive and had begun to look at the Congress afresh. The Bhumihars, who lost their lands to the upwardly mobile Yadavs and have been arraigned against them, had swung to the BJP in 1991. The support of the upper castes is crucial for the Congress revival both in UP and Bihar. It is only after the party has won back itsbase among one section of society will others like the minorities gravitate to it.
The Government’s decision to impose President’s rule shows it is getting ready for elections in Bihar along with the other four states going to the polls in November. There is little likelihood of President Rule in Bihar being ratified by the Rajya Sabha within two months as required legally because the BJP and its allies do not have a majority in the upper house.
Senior BJP leaders say that they would like a few more months to dismantle the political infrastructure created by Laloo Yadav and undo the damage done by it before going to the polls but they have no answer to how they will get past the Rajya Sabha.
The BJP calculation is that the party will win both in Madhya Pradesh and in Bihar if elections are held there. This will help blunt the defeat the party may see in Delhi, Rajasthan and Mizoram, where elections are due in November, and ward off the offensive that is bound to be launched against the CentralGovernment were it to lose three out of four states, two of them known to be its strongholds.
The party is confident winning 50-60 out of the 81 seats in South Bihar (what could become Vanachal) and around 120 in the rest of Bihar in a Laloo versus non-Laloo polarisation.
