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The Southwest monsoon will most likely hit Kerala on time, according to the Extended Range Forecast (ERF) released by the India Meteorological Department on Thursday.
The normal date for the monsoon onset over Kerala is June 1. About 70 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall is recorded between June to September.
“IMD’s ERF suggests that the monsoon will arrive over Kerala on time, around June 1. This is an early indication,” tweeted M Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences on Thursday.
IMD releases ERF every Thursday, with weather predictions made for the upcoming four weeks over India.
The IMD is slated to release the second stage monsoon Long Range Forecast (LRF) on May 15. By then, the forecasters would have greater confidence to share the precise date of arrival of the monsoon over the Andaman Sea and its progress over to mainland India.
In its first stage of the LRF released last month, the Met department has forecast normal to above normal rainfall from June to September this year.
The forecasters had said that the neutral phase of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) throughout the four-month season could act favourably and bring good rainfall activity over the country. ENSO is among the several key factors that determine the rainfall performance during the crucial Indian summer monsoon.
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