Maharashtra Exit Polls 2024: Soon after the Maharashtra polling ended on Wednesday, pollsters were quick to publish their exit poll results. An analysis of nine exit polls shows Mahayuti is leading the charge with pollsters giving it 118 to 175 seats, while MVA struggles with numbers as low as 69. Three polls suggest a hung house, indicating no clear majority. With Mahayuti showing promise but MVA still in the mix, the political landscape remains uncertain.
While most surveys showed the Mahayuti crossing the halfway-mark in the 288-member Assembly, the MVA are expected to get between 90 and 150 seats. However, one needs to always remember that this is just an indication and in 2019, too, most polls had missed the mark, predicting a landslide victory for the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance. Here’s how the surveys stack up this time:
Also Read: Maharashtra records 45.53% turnout, 61.47% voting in Jharkhand in Phase 2 till 3 pm
| Survey | Mahayuti | MVA | Others |
| P-MARQ | 137-157 | 126-146 | 02-08 |
| People’s Pulse | 175-195 | 85-112 | 7-12 |
| Matrize | 150-170 | 110-130 | 8-10 |
| Lokshahi-Marathi Rudra | 128-142 | 125-140 | 18-23 |
| JVC | 150-167 | 107-125 | 13-14 |
| Chanakya | 152-160 | 130-138 | 6-8 |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 125-140 | 135-150 | 20-25 |
| Electoral Edge | 118 | 150 | 20 |
| Poll Diary | 122-186 | 69-121 | 10-27 |
Voters in regions like Vidarbha, marked by glaring inequalities, express scepticism towards party politics.
Local issues and candidates dominate over ideological alignments, making outcomes harder to predict.
These sentiments could benefit alliances like Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) or Mahayuti, depending on the way localised strategies resonate with the voters.
The 2024 Maharashtra elections reflect a fractured political landscape, stemming from splits within major parties like the Shiv Sena and the NCP.
Traditional alliances have dissolved, creating six main contenders instead of four.
This fragmentation has intensified voter disillusionment, focusing attention on individual candidates rather than party ideologies.
Despite securing 161 seats, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance failed to form a government due to disagreements over power-sharing.
The Shiv Sena then joined forces with the Congress and NCP, whose combined tally of 98 enabled the formation of the Maha Vikas Aghadi government.
In 2019, exit polls in Maharashtra overestimated the BJP-Shiv Sena (undivided) alliance's performance, predicting an average of 207 seats, whereas they secured 161.
The Congress-NCP combine's strength was underestimated, with polls forecasting 65 seats compared to the 98 they achieved.
News18-IPSOS was the least accurate, predicting 243 seats for the BJP-Shiv Sena, while India Today-Axis My India came closest with a lower-bound estimate of 166 seats.
As of 3 PM, Maharashtra recorded a voter turnout of 45.53%, according to the Election Commission of India. The highest turnout was in Gadchiroli at 62.99%, while Thane saw the lowest at 38.94%. Mumbai City and Suburbs registered below-average turnouts of 39.34% and 40.89%, respectively. Kolhapur emerged as one of the top-performing districts with a turnout of 54.06%.
Challenges include the diversity of voters, over- or under-representation of certain groups, and complexities introduced by multi-party systems and changing political alliances. Experts say the count method and selective polling in swing constituencies can enhance accuracy. However, traditional methods are still crucial for estimating vote shares and analysing voting behavior.
Exit polls can vary in accuracy and often show erratic results. Accuracy depends on factors such as the representativeness of the sample, the methodology used, and the ability to address challenges like diverse voter profiles and changes in party alliances.
The Election Commission of India mandates that exit polls be released after polling concludes in all phases to avoid influencing voters who have yet to cast their votes.
Exit polls are estimates of how people voted in an election, based on interviews conducted with voters as they leave polling stations and other voter data analyses.
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