NSCN (K) weaker, but retains the potential for damage

It is a fact that a sizeable number of NSCN (K) cadres have defected to other groups in the past few years. While many of them went to the NSCN (IM), one group established a new faction called the NSCN (Reformation) in April. The NSCN (K) had seen two more splits earlier — leading to the formation of the NSCN (Unification) in 2007, and NSCN (KK) in June 2011.

According to estimates by intelligence agencies, the NSCN (K)’s current strength is around 1,500 men, some 600-700 of whom are in Myanmar. Of the remaining, about 200 cadres each are in Nagaland and Manipur, and about 100 in Arunachal Pradesh. Security forces have apprehended some 75 NSCN (K) cadres over the past few months, while 20 have been killed in encounters since March this year.

Intelligence reports also indicate that the NSCN (K) is facing a major funds crisis, with security forces being able to stop extortions to a large extent. Also, a civil society movement called Action Committee Against Unabated Taxation (ACAUT) has built up significant public opinion against the collection of “tax” by rebels in Nagaland, and affected collections.

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NSCN (K) camps in Myanmar provide shelter, training and weapons to other outfits from the Northeast, which is a major source of income for the group, intelligence reports say. The main ULFA (I) camp in Myanmar is situated next to the headquarters of the NSCN (K).

In April, Khaplang, along with Paresh Barua of the ULFA (I), floated a new umbrella organisation of insurgent groups called United National Liberation Front of Western South-East Asia (UNLFWSEA). There are at least nine outfits in this conglomeration, including the NDFB (S). The move is seen as precursor to an eventual government-in-exile. Indian security agencies suspect a Chinese hand behind the effort.