Shiv Sena (UBT)’s one-upmanship exposes fault lines in Maharashtra Congress

When the Maha Vikas Aghadi was formed five years ago with Uddhav Thackeray as the chief minister, the Congress was dismissed as the smallest party in the alliance and was accordingly given a raw deal within the government and the administration. In the last two years though, the equations have changed.

The BJP’s Operation Lotus dealt a body blow to the Shiv Sena and the NCP as both parties split into two factions, with both Thackeray and Sharad Pawar losing the party name and the original symbol. Though the alliance partners were reduced in strength, the Congress leadership failed to seize the opportunity to lead the MVA, demoralising the cadre and prompting leaders to scout for alternatives, say party insiders.

“There are two streams of thought within the Congress. Those who are contesting feel the need for an alliance to secure their seats. The larger section feels consolidation of organisation would bring higher rewards in the long run,” a senior Maharashtra Pradesh Congress Committee leader said.

The disagreements over seat-sharing have only added to the party’s woes with many leaders, like Sanjay Nirupam, who is upset over being denied a chance to contest from the Mumbai North West Lok Sabha seat, openly voicing his disillusionment with the Congress.

Alliance politics, at a heavy cost

The rumblings within the Congress against Uddhav Thackeray’s ‘highhandedness’ have been voiced on several occasions in the past. In fact, Mumbai Congress chief Varsha Gaikwad took up the matter with the All India Congress Committee and even raised it in Thackeray’s presence.

While the Shiv Sena (UBT) has miffed Congress leaders by naming candidates for several contentious seats ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, seasoned Congress strategists say they are also aware that Thackeray and Sharad Pawar are a team with clear agendas: While Sharad Pawar is aiming to check the NCP-led by Ajit Pawar in Western Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena (UBT) wants to restrict the growth of the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, especially in the Konkan region, Mumbai and Thane.

With its national presence, the Congress can put up a fight against the BJP but is seemingly hindered by alliance politics. The party has also failed to put in place a robust mechanism to inculcate confidence within party workers about its ability to address their grievances – and local leaders are paying the price.

Congress MLA Vishwajeet Kadam, for example, was amongst the most sought-after leaders relentlessly wooed by the BJP. For the last 10 years, Kadam stood by the Congress and rejected the BJP’s offer. The Shiv Sena (UBT)’s decision to name a candidate for the Sangli Lok Sabha seat has left Kadam and the local party unit upset.

“The Congress approach is always to accommodate everybody. In the fight against the BJP, we worked and succeeded in uniting like-minded parties to form the INDIA bloc at the Centre and the MVA in Maharashtra. But allies should not take us for granted. In any partnership, there should be mutual give and take,” senior Congress leader Balasaheb Thorat said.

In a candid admission, a political strategist in the Congress said, “In Maharashtra, we are forced to take a back seat to keep the INDIA bloc intact. Both Pawar Senior and Thackeray are important constituents of the INDIA bloc.”

A steady decline

In the 1960s, after Maharashtra was created following state reorganisation on a linguistic basis on May 1, 1960, the Congress rule over Maharashtra was unrivalled. In the 1962 Assembly elections, for example, the party won 215 out of the 264 seats and got 51.22 per cent of the votes. Over the years, the Shiv Sena (June 19, 1966), the BJP (April 6, 1980) and the Nationalist Congress Party (June 10, 1999) came into being.

Today, the once-unchallenged Congress is a shadow of its former self. The Lok Sabha and Assembly statistics are telling.

In the 1999 Assembly polls, the Congress won 75 seats (with 27.2 per cent votes) of the total 288 seats. Twenty years later, in 2019, the party’s seat tally came down to 44 (15.87 per cent votes).

In the 2004 Assembly polls, the Congress won 69 seats; and in 2009, 82 seats. The vote share improved slightly — from 21.06 per cent to 21.01 per cent. With the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena also in the fray, the division of votes helped the Congress enhance its tally.

In 2014, with Narendra Modi at the Centre and Devendra Fadnavis in the state leading the BJP’s poll campaigns, the Congress took a huge beating and its tally dropped to 42 seats – with a 17.95 per cent vote share. Five years later, in 2019, it showed no progress as the seat tally marginally increased to 44 seats and the vote share was 15.67 per cent.

The Congress’s Lok Sabha performance from 1999 to 2019 is also a cause of concern.

In the 1999 elections, the party won only 10 of the 48 seats. Alliance partner NCP won six seats, the BJP 13 and the Shiv Sena 15 seats. In the subsequent Lok Sabha polls in 2004, the Congress won 13, the NCP nine, BJP 13 and the Shiv Sena, 12 seats. The 2009 seat tally was 17 for the Congress, eight for the NCP, nine for the BJP and 11 for the Shiv Sena.

The emergence of Moditva in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections saw the Congress being reduced to just two seats and the NCP to four. The BJP bagged its highest-ever tally of 23 seats and its then ally, the undivided Shiv Sena, 18 seats. In the 2019 elections, Congress won just one Lok Sabha seat, Chandrapur in the Vidarbha region. Its ally NCP won four seats, the BJP got 23 seats and the Shiv Sena 18 seats.

Congress observers are quick to point out how the party’s vote share in Maharashtra has remained intact despite the loss of seats in the last 10 years. However, the vote share too has been dropping. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress vote share was 18.29 per cent, which came down in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls to 16.41 per cent.

What lies ahead

“The Congress has an opportunity to regain its vote base and revive the party,” says Dalit writer and political commentator Arjun Dange. “When Rahul Gandhi embarked on a Bharat Jodo Yatra, it renewed the prospects of a Congress revival. There is strong disenchantment among Dalits and Muslims over the communal agenda of RSS/BJP. Apprehensions regarding tampering with the Constitution lurk in the minds of Ambedkarites. Liberals also have a disdain for communal agenda.,” Dange adds.

But is a Congress revival likely? State Congress president Nana Patole is optimistic. “Congress will emerge stronger,” he says, adding, “The differences over seat-sharing will be resolved through discussion.”