Why the 3-party coalition in Maharashtra is posing a challenge for the BJP

Mathematically, the Eknath Shinde-led coalition is on a strong footing. In the 288-seat Maharashtra Assembly, the magic number to retain power is 145. At present, the BJP has 105 MLAs, the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) 40, NCP (Ajit Pawar) 40 – along with 10 Independents, the coalition tally is a respectable 195 MLAs.

The problem, however, is that of chemistry. Both Shinde and Ajit Pawar find themselves in a Catch-22 situation as the MLAs who pledged loyalties to them are seeking their promised rewards. On its part, the BJP, despite being the largest party with 105 MLAs, has been reduced to playing the role of a mediator to keep its allies satisfied.

A section within the NCP wants to see Ajit Pawar become the chief minister, a post he has long aspired for. But any attempt to replace Shinde midway is likely to boomerang. Apart from the CM’s post, the clamour for the long-promised and much-delayed cabinet expansion and the demand for posts of guardian ministers and corporation posts have kept the three leaders preoccupied.

On Thursday, Fadnavis told the media in Mumbai, “Eknath Shinde will continue as CM for full tenure. The 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections will be under Shinde’s leadership.”

Coalition conflict

It was on June 30, 2022, that Shinde took oath as the chief minister of Maharashtra. The BJP’s Operation Lotus saw the Shiv Sena split after Shinde raised the banner of revolt. The Shiv Sena faction led by Shinde had the support of 40 MLAs. He also got support from 10 MLAs representing smaller parties and Independents. The BJP-Shinde Sena coalition had 20 Cabinet ministers, including Shinde and Fadnavis. A year later, in July 2023, Ajit Pawar joined the government, becoming deputy CM. Eight other NCP leaders were inducted as Cabinet ministers.

Months later, the friction within the coalition has its origins in both Shinde and Ajit Pawar failing to fulfil the promises made to their MLAs. Both leaders also reckon that any attempt to antagonise their MLAs would prove politically detrimental to the unity of the coalition.

“The BJP uses its allies and then dumps them. They are not honest with their allies,” says Prahar Jana Shakti president Bacchu Kadu, who stood by Shinde during his rebellion and joined the government. Kadu represents the Achalpur Assembly constituency in Amravati district. State BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule has deputed Rajya Sabha MP Anil Bonde to monitor the Achalpur constituency. This, Kadu says, amounts to “interference and betrays trust”.

During the Ganesh festival celebrations, Shiv Sena Lok Sabha MP Shrikant Shinde publicly told his party supporters, “I am going to contest from Kalyan seat. We will not only retain but win the polls again.” The announcement came shortly after the top BJP-Shiv leadership had to intervene to resolve the dispute between local Shiv Sena and BJP leaders in Kalyan over the right to contest the Kalyan East Assembly seat.

“In a three-party coalition, conflict is natural. The power tussle and turf war is expected. But what is important is to see how these frictions are addressed,” a senior BJP functionary said.

Ajit Pawar holds his ground

When Ajit Pawar recently made his displeasure over the delay in re-distributing district guardian ministership obvious by skipping the Cabinet meeting and public functions, Shinde and Fadnavis were quick to act. Seven out of nine NCP ministers were given district guardian responsibilities. In fact, senior BJP minister Chandrakant Patil, who was the guardian minister of Pune, was forced to make way for Ajit Pawar.

The NCP is now eyeing ministerial posts, with NCP president Sunil Tatkare saying that a “cabinet expansion is necessary”. Both Shiv Sena and NCP aspirants have repeatedly voiced their disappointment in private over the delay in cabinet expansion.

At present, there are 29 ministers in the state Cabinet, including Shinde, Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar. The permissible limit for Maharashtra is 43 ministers, which means there is scope for an additional 14 ministers.

NCP leaders have also been vocal about their belief that Ajit Pawar will replace Shinde as the chief minister. “Ajit Pawar will soon become the CM,” NCP minister Aatram Dharamraobaba recently announced.

In July, senior Congress leader and former Maharashtra chief minister Prithviraj Chavan had made a similar remark, alleging that Ajit Pawar was brought in by the BJP to replace Shinde whose political influence was limited to Thane district.

Fadnavis has tried to dismiss these speculations as baseless, saying that this was a strategy being adopted by political rivals to create confusion. The MLAs who have chosen to stay with Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray are restless and the Opposition is spreading rumours about the CM change on purpose to prevent these MLAs from changing sides, Fadnavis has alleged.

“There are no differences within the three-party coalition. If there are some issues, they are tackled by our leaders through discussion,” Bawankule maintained.

The Shinde Sena is wary of Ajit Pawar’s growing influence. “We accept Ajit Pawar’s competence as deputy CM and finance minister. But we cannot sacrifice our rights to all districts. In Nashik, he wants guardianship for Chhagan Bhujbal. Why should Dadasaheb Bhuse (Shiv Sena) let go of the district? NCP has already bagged plum portfolios in the Cabinet. They cannot have everything their way,” a Shinde Sena minister said, requesting anonymity.

BJP on the backfoot?

With the NCP and Shiv Sena asserting their rights, the BJP has been forced to go on the backfoot. At every BJP meeting, Fadnavis tells party leaders and workers to keep their ambitions aside and work with the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in mind. The party has set a target of winning 45 out of 48 seats in Lok Sabha.

The going will only get tougher when the seat-sharing talks begin for the 48 Lok Sabha and 288 Assembly seats, a Shiv Sena insider said.

To avoid problems, the BJP has recommended that a coordination committee comprising members from all three parties be set up in every Lok Sabha and Assembly constituency. The real challenge, though, will lie in getting the three parties to work unitedly.