A weaker Shiv Sena (UBT) dents the collective strength of MVA in Maharashtra

Although a three-party coalition was an experiment undertaken for the first time in Maharashtra with individual organisation setting aside their ideological differences to form a coalition based on common minimum agenda, it succeeded for 2.5 years. When these three parties came together the sole agenda was to isolate the BJP in Maharashtra politics. The Congress, NCP, and Shiv Sena believed a second tenure to the BJP in Maharashtra would undermine their political organisation. In Devendra Fadnavis as the chief minister, the Congress and NCP saw a shrewd, highly-ambitious administrator who would ruthlessly undertake his organisation’s expansion to its logical end.

However, the split in the Shiv Sena was something which nobody in the MVA had envisaged. The BJP’s ‘Operation Lotus’ plan was no secret. It was known to everybody that the BJP will not let go of a single opportunity to strike back at the MVA. Unfortunately, nobody within the MVA ever believed Bal Thackeray’s Shiv Sena would split bringing down the government which was led by none other than its party president Uddhav Thackeray.

The formation of the Eknath Shinde faction was a strategic plot of the BJP to wreck and shift the grass root support base of the organisation which was founded by Bal Thackeray and later steered by his son Uddhav Thackeray. The Shiv Sena was formed on June 19, 1966. The party’s remote always remained in the powerful hands of Bal Thackeray. Uddhav Thackeray took the charge as its Executive President in 2005. After, Bal Thackeray’s demise in 2012, he was elevated as the Shiv Sena President.

While justifying the BJP’s ‘Operation Lotus’, a senior party functionary said, “Had the Congress, NCP, and Shiv Sena coalition remained in power it would be extremely difficult for the BJP to contest the 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections.” The BJP exploited the inbuilt discontent within the coalition to its advantage, he added.

Working the numbers

The Shiv Sena 16.41 per cent, NCP 16.7 per cent and Congress 15.87 per cent together sum upto 48.99 per cent. Any alliance which crosses 40 per cent always has an edge in government formation in the state. A divided Shiv Sena also means its vote share will be divided too. The Congress and NCP together make up 32.58 per cent. For the Congress and the NCP, the real challenge is to find ways to fulfil the deficit caused due to split in the Shiv Sena.

With 40 out of 56 MLAs and 12 out of 18 MPs switching sides from Thackeray to Shinde, the electoral base of the Shiv Sena (UBT) is bound to be adversely affected. With a bitter battle ahead between Thackeray and Shinde it remains to be seen which way a committed Sena voter will swing. Will they remain with Thackeray or move to Shinde? Or will it get fragmented region-wise and partly move to the BJP and the NCP?

The creation of the Eknath Shinde party was the BJP’s necessity to wreck the MVA. A weaker Thackeray Sena also means a weaker MVA.

Ambitious goal

During his recent three-day visit to Maharashtra, Union Home Minister Amit Shah urged the state BJP to work for a 50 per cent vote share for the 2024 polls. To achieve such an ambitious target, the BJP had to first dent MVA’s vote bank.

Even with the help of the Shinde faction, the BJP knows 50 per cent vote share is a herculean task.

In 2019, the BJP’s vote share was 25.75 per cent—which means it will have to get a 24.25 per cent additional vote share to make it to 50 per cent alone or with alliance partners. The BJP’s new ally, the Shinde faction, may boost its electoral fortunes but is unlikely to give them a frog leap of 24. 25 per cent. Insiders in the BJP admit even an undivided Shiv Sena’s vote share always remained below 18 per cent. So, it is unlikely Shinde, whose presence is concentrated in Thane which encompasses 24 assembly seats and four Lok Sabha seats, is unlikely to cross 10 per cent vote share.

However, Chief Minister Shinde is super confident. He has said, “The electoral outcome in the 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly will be a huge surprise. I promise the BJP and Shiv Sena will sweep in 48 Lok Sabha seats and 200 plus Assembly seats.”

The Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) chief Prakash Ambedkar, who has aligned with Uddhav Thackeray’s party, warned, “Politics in Maharashtra is very uncertain. Nobody can take public support for granted.” “If the MVA works fine. Or else, we are always ready to take the challenge alone.”

The smaller parties and Independents who constitute 29 Assembly seats collectively have a vote share of 25 per cent which is decisive in making or breaking any government.