Aam Aadmi Party likely to storm back to power in Delhi, say opinion polls

A poll, carried out by TNS for Economic Times, portend that the AAP is likely to get 36-40 seats in the 70-member Assembly with BJP likely to repeat its 2013 score of 28-32 seats. The AAP vote share will soar to 49%, its best ever showing, the poll predicts. The Congress, considered a non-starter in these polls, will end up with 2-4 seats. The survey was reportedly carried out across 16 constituencies with 3,260 respondents.

The same picture is visible in another survey, carried out by ABP news-Nielsen. The survey predicts 35 seats for AAP with a vote-share of 37% and 29 seats for the BJP with a corresponding vote-share of 33%. What is noteworthy in this survey is that the AAP draws maximum support from lower-caste groups along with SC/ST communities and Muslims. The latest survey is in stark contrast to the polling firm’s earlier surveys where the BJP had a lead over the AAP.

A third survey conducted by Hindustan Times-C fore has predicted 36-41 seats for Kejriwal’s party with the BJP trailing a close second with 27-32 seats. Congress’s fortunes do not seem to shine even in this poll with the party predicted to win 2-7 seats. A successive defeat in Delhi, where the Congress ruled for 15 long years, will surely dampen the cadre’s morale. A total of 3,578 respondents were queried in the survey with half of them women.

One factor on which all three surveys emphatically agree on is the overwhelming popularity of Kejriwal among Delhi voters. While the ET survey shows Kejriwal getting support of 54% of voters as a chief ministerial candidate, he gets 46% backing in the Hindustan Times survey and 48% support in the ABP poll. This also shows that the BJP’s decision to project Kiran Bedi as its face in the polls does not seem to have worked. She is second to Kejriwal in terms of popularity in all three surveys. Ajay Maken, who leads the Congress campaign, gets poor ratings in all three polls.

Polling in Delhi will be held on February 7 and the results will be declared on February 10.