2008, 2019, 2023 and now: Why Punjab saw floods even when rainfall was normal

Data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows that between 2008 and 2025, Punjab recorded eight deficient monsoons, seven normal monsoons, and just three surplus years. Yet, it is the normal and surplus years that have triggered devastation — floods in 2008 and 2025 during surplus years, and in 2019 and 2023 despite normal rainfall.

Experts point to a mix of factors for this trend structural weaknesses and changing rainfall patterns. As unequal distribution of rain across the state as some districts are seeing excess rains and some deficient, Unlike the devastating 1988 floods, when swollen rivers and massive dam releases inundated cities and thousands of villages, recent floods have been concentrated in pockets — mainly areas near the Sutlej, Beas, Ravi, and the seasonal Ghaggar.

The causes have remained strikingly similar across years: weak and breached Dhussi bandhs (embankments), silt-choked rivers and drains, encroachments on natural drainage channels by farming and urbanisation, and sudden bursts of intense rainfall in river catchments.

Flooding has occurred both at the onset and in the middle of the monsoon season (June–September, with monsoons usually reaching Punjab by June 27–28).

In 2008, heavy mid-August rains in Himachal’s Sutlej catchment, combined with local downpours, caused breaches in Dhussi bandhs across Jalandhar and Kapurthala, flooding hundreds of villages.

Experts say this contrast — more deficient years but recurring floods — underscores Punjab’s changing rainfall pattern.

In 2019, the Ghaggar river spilled over after torrential rain between July 15–17, with tributaries Tangri and Markanda also overflowing, submerging hundreds of villages in Malwa. At the same time that year, 163 villages in Doaba and around 100 villages other district including Ludhiana, Moga, Ferozepur and Fazilka were hit as a record 2.75 lakh cusecs flowed through the Sutlej, leading to breaches near Phillaur and Gidderpindi. Despite the river not overtopping its banks, weak embankments gave way.

In 2023, floods struck twice — first between July 8–10, when incessant rains swelled the Sutlej, Beas, and Ghaggar, causing nearly 100 breaches that inundated farmland in 1,400 villages including several residential areas . Then, around August 15, the Beas swelled again after heavy rainfall in Himachal, flooding villages in Hoshiarpur and Gurdaspur.

This year, the Majha region was hit by the Ravi river overflowing with its highest-ever recorded flow — over 14 lakh cusecs, around 4 lakh above capacity and the floods similar to the nature of 1988. Elsewhere in Punjab, floods were caused by incessant rains and breaches in Dhussi and advance bandhs, rather than overflowing rivers.

A senior drainage department official said: “Punjab’s recent floods are not across the state but in pockets near rivers and drains. Even in normal rainfall years, encroached drains, weak embankments, and sudden intense rain spells are enough to trigger disaster.”

Surinder Paul, Director IMD Chandigarh, added that even one or two days of intense rainfall in river catchments can now trigger floods several pockets in Punjab. “This paradox explains why Punjab, despite eight deficient years in 18 seasons, has still suffered repeated floods. It’s not about the quantum of rain alone, but the timing, concentration, and intensity that matter most,” he said.

The Rainfall Puzzle

IMD records show that between 2008–2025, Punjab saw three surplus years (2008, 2018, 2025), seven normal rain years (2010, 2013, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023) and eight deficient rainfall years (2009, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2024).

This year, Punjab has already recorded 621.7mm rainfall against the normal 418.1mm — 49 per cent above average — making it one of the wettest years in nearly two decades. By comparison, surpluses were 20.3 per cent in 2008 and 20.1 per cent in 2018.

In flood years, August rainfall was critical — with 46.4 per cent surplus in 2008, –2.3 per cent in 2019, 54.9 per cent in 2023, and 74 per cent excess in August 2025, the wettest August in 26 years. In contrast, July 2023 alone recorded an extraordinary 231.3 per cent excess rainfall.

September rainfall has also played a crucial role, as it coincides with monsoon withdrawal. Excess September rain has often aggravated flood conditions: 104.7 per cent surplus in 2008, -15 per cent in 2019, 64.6 per cent in 2023, and already 112 per cent surplus this September 2025 (104 mm against 49 mm normal).

Experts say this contrast — more deficient years but recurring floods — underscores Punjab’s changing rainfall pattern. Instead of evenly spread showers, the state is increasingly experiencing short, high-intensity downpours that cause flash floods, even when the overall monsoon tally remains deficient.

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