Opium prices in Afghanistan near historic peaks due to shortage: UNODC report

The Punjab government has launched a concentrated war on illicit drugs trade and supply in the state over past few weeks and part of this trade is controlled from Pakistan for drugs originating from Afghanistan.

Punjab Director General of Police (DGP) Gaurav Yadav said in an interview with The Indian Express a few weeks ago that opium production in Afghanistan has declined, which has somewhat affected the cross-border drug smuggling into India from Pakistan. He also noted that methamphetamine continues to be trafficked from Pakistan in large quantities, as confirmed by the UNODC report.

The report states that opiate stocks at the end of 2022 were estimated to have totalled 13,200 tonne, enough to potentially meet demand for Afghan opiates until 2027.

“The surge in opium prices and the substantial stockpiles mean that drug trafficking in Afghanistan remains a highly profitable illicit trade,” says Ghada Waly, executive director of UNODC. He said the profits are being channeled to transnational organized crime groups, destabilising Afghanistan, the region and beyond.

The report says the majority (60 per cent) of the Afghan stockpiles are likely held by large traders and exporters. Only 30 per cent of farmers held small to modest stockpiles in 2022, meaning that most farmers who previously cultivated opium are likely experiencing severe financial hardship.

“The continued supply shortage of opium may motivate buyers and sellers to look to alternative drugs that are potentially even more harmful than heroin, like fentanyl or other synthetic opioids,” the report adds.

According to the report, an analysis of available drug seizure and price data in and around Afghanistan show clearly that regional opiate markets are experiencing reductions in supply. Production estimates for 2023 and 2024 indicate that poppy cultivation and opium production remain a fraction relative to years of steady harvests prior to the enforcement of the drugs ban in 2023 when total annual production fell from a pre-ban average of about 6,400 tonne of opium to 330 tonne.

“The decline in production has translated to marked reductions in seizures of opiates outside of Afghanistan. Similarly, declining seizures are consistent with rising prices for opium and heroin within Afghanistan and in neighbouring Iran. During the first half of 2024, wholesale opium and heroin prices per kilogram have spiked to recent historic highs. Taken together, the ban appears to have reduced heroin processing in Afghanistan and the availability of opium,” says the report.

Methamphetamine supply remains unaffected

The UNODC report says the seizure and price trends for methamphetamine appear largely uninterrupted by the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan and their enforced drug ban. In fact, methamphetamine seizures are recorded more frequently, and prices show some signs of relative stability in Afghanistan and continue to fall in neighbouring Iran.

The report says that although the authorities continue to report seizures of ephedra and ephedrine, such efforts have had no apparent effect on the availability of methamphetamine’s availability in regional drug markets.

Trafficking continues but declining seizures of opiates point to slowdown

An examination of non-retail seizures within 3,000 km from Afghanistan between January 2019 until July 2024 from the UNODC’s Drug Monitoring Platform shows that heroin, opium, and methamphetamine seizures vary geographically. Opium seizures occur most frequently near Afghanistan, with many occurring in Iran.

Concentrations of seizures, particularly for heroin, occur in Northern Pakistan and near the border regions of the Caucuses. Comparatively little opium is seized in maritime areas, but there are cases of heroin and methamphetamine seizures at sea.