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Countries that develop quantum capabilities will secure an “unprecedented strategic edge”, which can “jeopardize” national security and economic competitiveness, NITI Aayog’s Frontier Tech Hub said in a quarterly release Wednesday.
Quantum technologies can crack modern encryption, destabilize financial markets, and transform military capabilities, hence India needs to assess vulnerabilities, adopt post-quantum cryptography, and forge bilateral partnerships for technology access, the release said.
Unlike classical computers, which process information in binary (0s and 1s), quantum computing uses quantum bits (qubits) that can exist in multiple states at the same time, allowing it to perform certain tasks much faster.
A sufficiently powerful quantum computer can also break public-key encryption algorithms, in turn making modern internet security, online banking, and secure communications obsolete.
Public sector investment in quantum development has increased rapidly, with over $40 billion pledged by more than 30 governments. China leads with a $15 billion commitment, the United States has invested $5 billion, and India plans to invest $750 million, primarily through the National Quantum Mission (NQM) launched in 2023, the release noted.
On India’s lower public spending compared to China and the US, NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam pointed to the country’s success in “frugal innovation”. “If you throw some money, you won’t necessarily get a good solution. I don’t think the billions matter. Again, our mission to Mars was the cheapest in the world. We landed on the south pole of the moon. I am sure that India can genuinely come up with very economical solutions,” Subrahmanyam said.
Debjani Ghosh, Distinguished Fellow at NITI Aayog and chief architect of the Frontier Tech Hub, said, “The quantum race hasn’t even started. It’s very early days, and I’m glad that we have got a foot in the door with the quantum mission. We are at least thinking about it and building a foundation.”
The NQM, with a budgetary outlay of Rs 6,003 crore, was set up to build quantum-related capabilities in key domains, namely, computing, communications, sensors, and materials. The estimated expenditure for the ongoing financial year under the mission was reduced from Rs 427 crore to Rs 86 crore in the latest Union Budget. For 2025-26, it is projected to rise to Rs 600 crore.
“The Indian quantum mission caught the trend very early and they started the investment early. They had a specific goal, which was to address the hardware issue, because that is going to be a key limiter in quantum. Later on, we’ll realize how important that is going to be, not right now. The mission also started growing the startup ecosystem,” Ghosh said.
“Companies are increasingly focusing on producing ultra-high purity materials, cryogenic systems, specialized lasers, and control electronics tailored for quantum computing,” the release noted, highlighting the growing importance of specialized quantum hardware.
Prepared with the Data Security Council of India, the release also flagged an expected surge in export controls on quantum technologies as a key risk.
“As quantum technologies become critical to national security, export restrictions are tightening on components like Arbitrary Waveform Generators (AWGs), Digital-to-Analog Converters (DACs), Microwave Components, specialized lasers, and cryogenic dilution refrigerators,” it said.
“Advancements in quantum technology would expose the country to increased risk of technological surprise and strategic blind spots. Being caught off guard by quantum driven advancements would jeopardize national security, economic competitiveness, and technological leadership,” the release said.
To mitigate risks to national security from quantum technologies, the release recommended developing a post-quantum cryptography (PQC) transition plan. PQC refers to cryptographic algorithms designed to withstand attacks from quantum computers, ensuring improved data security.
“Countries are in a race to develop and implement PQC to safeguard their data. Those who master PQC first can protect their critical information while others remain vulnerable,” it said.
Over 170 professors across leading academic institutions in India are actively working in quantum technology domains. Historically, India’s quantum efforts have had a “strong focus on fundamental science rather than technology development and commercialization,” the release said.
“In recent years, start-up activity has emerged, particularly in quantum software, algorithms, and quantum-safe cryptography, though these ventures have largely been bootstrapped or received limited seed funding,” it added.
The US leads in quantum innovation through a mix of government support and private sector investment, with tech giants like Google and IBM, alongside startups like PsiQuantum, advancing diverse quantum modalities.
In China, the quantum strategy is centralized and state-driven, with institutions like USTC and Zhejiang University leading breakthroughs. “(China’s) ambition for quantum supremacy is evident in its large-scale programs and military-intelligence integration efforts, aiming for rapid deployment of quantum capabilities,” the release said.
