There is a frisson of anticipation ahead of External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s visit to Pakistan on October 15-16 for the summit-level meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). After all, the last time an Indian Foreign Minister was in the country was nine years ago when Sushma Swaraj visited Islamabad for the Heart of Asia Conference on Afghanistan in December 2015. Her trip was followed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi going to Lahore to meet then-Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif. Since then, however, the bilateral relationship has been on a downward trajectory. A thaw in ties seems unlikely in the near term.
The elephant in the room remains Pakistan’s use of cross-border terror as a part of its security and strategic calculus. Despite the fact that its support for extremist groups has had grave consequences domestically, Rawalpindi continues to support separatist elements across the border. As Minister Jaishankar said at an event in New Delhi on Saturday, “if you’re all sitting together and cooperating, and at the same time, you know this kind of terrorism go(ing) on openly… in which case, you are normalising it, you are accepting that this is a legitimate tool of statecraft.” It is for this reason that the SAARC has become nearly defunct. Islamabad, for its part, is stuck with the maximalist position it took in the aftermath of the abrogation of Article 370 in Kashmir. Its stand that Delhi must undo the change in Jammu & Kashmir’s constitutional status as a precursor for dialogue cannot now be softened without political consequences domestically.
Jaishankar has made it clear that the visit is for the multilateral SCO summit and not to discuss India-Pakistan ties. When the then Foreign Minister of Pakistan, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, visited India for the SCO meet last year, he exchanged barbs with Jaishankar, who had reacted sharply to Bhutto’s comments on Kashmir. A similar script could well play out in Islamabad this month. It is possible, of course, that Jaishankar interacts with leaders in Pakistan who have in the past hinted at less hostile ties with India. Such an engagement is important in itself and, given the volatile nature of Pakistan’s politics, a hedge for the future. At the current moment, however, Pakistan’s domestic political turmoil and uncertainty mean that it is not just a question of whether the SCO meeting is an appropriate forum to build bridges but also of who to build those bridges with. Jailed former PM Imran Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), has been protesting alleged delays in implementing the judicial verdict recognising its legislators and allowing the PTI to nominate women and minority members to the country’s National Assembly. The timing of the protests also casts a shadow over the SCO meeting. The PTI under Khan has directly challenged the Pakistan Army. Given this political uncertainty and continuing disagreements on core issues, the visit can, at best, be the first step in a long road to better ties between the two countries.
