Opinion The six that matter most

In India,the final outcome of a parliamentary election is based on what we call the “cruel arithmetic” of numbers. Six big states — Andhra Pradesh (42 seats),West Bengal (42 seats),Uttar Pradesh (80 seats),Bihar (40 seats),Maharashtra (48 seats) and Tamil Nadu (39 seats) — decide the fate of the national coalitions,and will do so in 2014. These six states account for more than half of the seats in the Lok Sabha (291 of 543 seats).

Since the demise of the one-party rule of the Congress in 1989,the ruling coalition has done well in these states. V.P. Singh’s Janata Dal in 1989 won a total of 143 seats,in which 91 seats were won in three of these six states (54 in UP,32 in Bihar,and 5 in Maharashtra). Similarly in 1991,the Congress won 91 seats from the following states (38 in Maharashtra,28 in Tamil Nadu,and 25 in Andhra Pradesh),apart from winning 23 seats in Karnataka and 27 seats in Madhya Pradesh.

The BJP’s ascendancy to the national scene can be attributed to election outcomes in these six states. In 1996,the BJP won more than half of its 161 seats from just three states (52 in UP,18 in Maharashtra,and 18 in Bihar). Similarly,in 1998,the BJP won 77 seats from two states (57 in UP and 20 in Bihar). The party’s alliance with the TDP in Andhra Pradesh and AIADMK in Tamil Nadu gave the NDA a large lead. In the 1999 parliamentary elections,the BJP won 52 seats from UP and Bihar. Along with its allies — the DMK in Tamil Nadu,TDP in Andhra,JD(U) in Bihar,and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra — the NDA won 186 out of 310 seats (Jharkhand and Uttaranchal were carved out as separate states in 2000) in these six states.

The main reason for the Congress’s debacle in the 1990s was that the party could not win seats in these six states. The party won only 33 out of the 310 seats and was thus reduced to its lowest-ever total of 114 seats in the 1999 Lok Sabha. The Congress bounced back in 2004 by registering a handsome win in Andhra on its own,and with allies in Bihar (RJD and LJP),Tamil Nadu (DMK) and Maharashtra (NCP). Similarly,the impressive performance by the Congress in 2009 owed much to its good showing in UP and Andhra,its allies in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal winning seats,and holding on to its base with the NCP in Maharashtra.

On the other hand,the BJP-led NDA lost in 2004 because the party managed to win only 28 out of 310 seats in these six states. The BJP did poorly in UP,lost in Bihar to the might of the Congress alliance,faced the brunt of double incumbency in Andhra,and chose the wrong alliance partner in Tamil Nadu. Likewise in 2009,the BJP did well only in Bihar,did not concede much ground in Maharashtra,and could not recover in UP. The NDA had no allies in West Bengal,Andhra and Tamil Nadu,and won only the Darjeeling Lok Sabha seat. The tables provide a stunning display of the power of this cruel arithmetic.

How would this arithmetic work in the 2014 elections? In Andhra,there would be a contest beyond old rivals,the Congress and the TDP,with uncertain outcomes due to the emergence of Jaganmohan Reddy’s YSR Congress and the increasing demand for a separate Telangana. In Tamil Nadu and West Bengal,neither the Congress nor the BJP has a chance to win seats by themselves. Unless something dramatic occurs till the next general elections,its unlikely that the NDA would concede any ground in Bihar and it is apparent that Maharashtra would be split between both coalitions. UP,with one in every seventh seat in the Lok Sabha,is going to play the crucial role in government formation.

In popular and most academic commentary,UP is presented as a microcosm of India. In reality,however,its politics is peculiar. In almost all other states,there has always been a fairly robust two-party competition at the constituency level since the first elections held post-Independence. In UP,on the other hand,assembly constituencies are marked by multi-party competition and,since the 1990s,there is a robust four-party competition at the state level.

With this four-pronged competition in UP,the vagaries of the first-past-the-post system come into play. Small vote shifts can lead to large gains in the number of seats a party wins or loses. Political scientists term this the seat-vote disparity,and first-past-the-post systems have the greatest seat-vote disparity. This disparity is magnified by the multi-party competition in UP. In UP,a swing of a few percentage points in the vote share of a party can turn the balance in terms of seats in favour of one party or the other. The assembly election results of 2007 and 2012 are good examples. The BSP trailed the Samajwadi Party (SP) by only three percentage points,but won only half as many seats as the SP in 2012. In 2007,the situation was the reverse. The BSP came to power with a small lead over the SP.

What will happen in 2014 in UP? The outcome is uncertain for two reasons. First,with the closeness of the races,a vote shift of a few percentage points can make a large difference as to who wins a substantial portion of the seats. Second,voters in UP appear to prefer a national party in national elections over a state party. This is why the Congress won 21 seats in 2009. The central question for the BJP and the Congress,has-beens in the state assembly,is whether they can offer the UP voter a compelling national vision and message.

Given this electoral arithmetic,what happens in these six states,particularly UP,is critical to the NDA and the UPA. What of the third front? Even if Nitish Kumar decides to walk out of the NDA coalition over Narendra Modi,the third front is a non-starter in national elections,at least for the time being,because there is no one party among the third front that can anchor a coalition. A coalition of small parties,where each party has 20 to 30 seats,has too many veto players to allow one among them to emerge as an unquestioned leader. An unstable third front was possible in 1989 and 1996 when the Janata Dal won enough seats from these six states to act as a pivot around which other parties could coordinate their interests. Both those governments fell quite rapidly. This time round,however,there is no coalition or leader who can form a coalition that would give one party enough seats in these six states to lead a third front.

The writers are with Travers Department of Political Science,University of California at Berkeley,US