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US president Donald Trump’s decision to impose a $1,00,000 fee on the H-1B visa has led industry experts to believe that the move would have both immediate and lasting consequences. In the short term, companies fear job losses and a freeze in hiring; in the long term, they see a deeper restructuring of the outsourcing model, with more work being shifted back to India and the industry recalibrating its dependence on onsite roles.
India accounts for around 70 per cent of the H-1B visas issued to technical talent by the US to foreign workers. Pune, industry sources say would account for around 10-15 per cent of these visa holders who at times might find it difficult to continue to work freely or travel back into the US.
Soon after Trump signed the proclamation, online platforms erupted with news of people either rushing back to the USA or getting out before the deadline lapsed.
Industry veteran and chairman of GTT Data Solutions Ganesh Natarajan said there would be immediate and long term impact of this move. In the short term, companies who have placed their Indian resources in the USA would have to recalibrate their plans or pay the fee which is steep.
“While in the long term the companies might find a way out but the short term effects can be harsh,” he said. Another industry expert, while speaking on the condition of anonymity, said H1-B visa holders might find themselves laid off in the USA, which would be a very difficult situation for them to face. ‘’The future is not very clear- most would adopt the wait and watch policy,” he said.
Mrityunjay Singh, former head of Infosys Pune and a former member of Hinjawadi Industries Association, expressed confidence that the industry would find a way to ensure they tide over this crisis. ‘’The industry would find a way to deal with this- The proclamation came on a weekend.. we need to see how this develops,” he said.
The companies who are doing business with US companies, Pradeep Bhargava, former president of the Mahratta Chamber of Commerce Industries and Agriculture, said they would have to invest in local talent there. “Economics work on the principle of supply and demand- with such a steep price demand is obviously going to be affected,” he said. Bhargava on the other hand felt this push would compel Indian graduates from the Premier Institutes to work in India. ‘’In the long term the industry will find a way- we have to see how this develops,’’ he said.