Maharashtra Exit Poll Result 2024 Highlights: Most exit polls predict lead for NDA, but ruling alliance unlikely to cross 2019’s 41-seat mark

Maharashtra is likely to see 28-32 of 48 seats go to the NDA alliance and 16-20 for the INDIA bloc, as per Axis My India.

Follow are the seat projections by Today's Chanakya:

BJP+ 33 ± 5 Seats
Congress+ 15 ± 5 Seats

NDTV India – Jan Ki Baat
NDA: 34-41
INDI Alliance: 9-16

TV9 exit poll
NDA: 22
INDI Alliance: 25

News18 exit poll
NDA: 32-35
INDI Alliance: 15-18

Republic Bharat-Matrize
NDA: 30-36
INDI Alliance: 13-19

Republic PMARQ
NDA: 29
INDI Alliance: 19

ABP C-Voter
NDA: 23-25
INDI Alliance: 22-26

According to NDTV India – Jan Ki Baat survey, following is the tally predicted for the two sides in Maharashtra:

NDA (34-41)
BJP 25-26
NCP 2-4
Shiv Sena 7-10
RSP 0-1

INDI Alliance (16-9)
Shiv Sena (UBT) 9-3
Congress 3-2
NCP (SP) 5-4

The TV9 exit poll has predicted that the Mahayuti will bag 22 seats - the BJP will get 18 seats, Shiv Sena 4 and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP will fail to open an account. This means the party is likely to lost the battle of prestige in Baramati, where Sunetra Pawar is pitted against sitting MP Supriya Sule.

For the Maha Vikas Aghadi side, the exit poll has predicted a win in 25 seats - with 14 seats for shiv Sena (UBT), six for NCP(Sharad Pawar) and five for Congress.

The BJP is likely to win 20-23 seats in Maharashtra, with the NDA securing 32-35 seats in Maharashtra, the News18 exit poll predicted. The Congress is projected to win 6-9 seats, whereas the opposition INDI alliance is likely to win 15 to 18 seats.

The Republic Bharat-Matrize exit polls have predicted that the NDA alliance in Maharashtra will win 30 to 36 seats, while the Opposition camp is projected to win 13 to 19 out of the total 48 seats.

The Republic PMARQ exit polls predict that the NDA alliance will win 29 seats, while the Uddhav camp is likely to win 19 seats.

According to ABP-C voter's survey, Opposition alliance Maha Vikas Aghadi is likely win 22 to 26 seats, while the ruling Mahayuti alliance is predicted to bag 23-25 seats.

As per the survey, the BJP is expected to get 17 seats, CM Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena will get six seats, and Ajit Pawar's NCP will likely get one seat.

• India Today-Axis My India
• ABP – C-voter
• News24-Today’s Chanakya
• Republic TV- PMARQ-Matrize
• Times Now – Bulls Eye
• NDTV India – Jan Ki Baat
• TV9 Bharatavarsh – Polstart

Key candidates in the Maharashtra Lok Sabha Elections 2024 include prominent leaders from major political parties, like Devendra Fadnavis (BJP), Eknath Shinde (Shiv Sena), Uddhav Thackeray (Shiv Sena UBT) and other influential candidates from INDIA and NDA.

In 2019, the BJP-led NDA alliance secured a landslide victory, winning 41 seats out of 48 seats in Maharashtra, while the UPA trailed significantly.

Number of Lok Sabha seats: 48

Dates: Five phases between April 19 till May 20

Result: June 4

Main parties involved: BJP, Congress, NCP, NCP(SP), Shiv Sena, Shiv Sena (UBT), MNS, VBA, AIMIM, AAP

INDIA bloc parties will get more than 295 seats in the Lok Sabha polls, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge said, asserting that they had arrived at the figure after feedback from people.

Kharge said the leaders of the alliance met for about two and a half hours and discussed a host of issues, especially the precautions to be taken on counting day and the instructions they have to give to their parties' workers.

Targeting the BJP, he said, "They are trying to give a narrative through government exit polls and we want to tell the people the truth." "The INDIA bloc will get more than 295 seats. We have arrived at this figure after speaking with all our leaders," Kharge said. "This is a survey of the people. The people have given this information to our leaders. The government surveys are there and their media friends also inflate figures and put it out. Therefore, we want to tell you about the reality," the Congress president said.

Senior leaders of the Congress, Samajwadi Party, CPI(M), CPI, DMK, JMM, AAP, RJD, Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP (Sharad Pawar) met at Kharge's residence on Saturday afternoon and held discussions, even as the last phase of polling was underway.

Parties have fielded a high number of dynasts in the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra, in an attempt to maximise their chances at winning maximum seats. Of the 96 candidates fielded by the six prominent parties in the state, nearly 34 per cent are political dynasts.

The BJP, which is contesting the highest number of seats in the state, has fielded the maximum number of dynasts at 13. Read more here

BJP's Mumbai North candidate Piyush Goyal has never contested Lok Sabha or State Assembly elections in his three-decade political career. He made his electoral debut in Rajya Sabha as MP in 2010. After completing his six-year term in Rajya Sabha, Goyal was appointed to Upper House in 2016 and 2022.

Several key policies which are showcased as achievements of ten years of Narendra Modi-led government came through the portfolios which were handled by Goyal. This include decision to provide free ration to 80 crore people which was enforced since the last two years, under Food and Public Distribution.

Read more here

Some movie theatres in Mumbai and neighbouring areas will screen election results for a duration of six hours on June 4.

The Bombay High Court directed Mumbai suburban district collector that restriction on sale of alcohol in Mumbai on June 4, when the counting of votes for the Lok Sabha elections will take place, will remain only till the declaration of results on that day.

The court was hearing two pleas by the Association of Owners of Hotels And Restaurants (AHAR) challenging the orders passed by the Mumbai city and suburban collectors declaring June 4 as a “dry day”. Read more

About 4,000 voters from 14 villages along the border between Maharashtra and Telangana could be the only ones in India to have the “privilege” to vote twice in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections — in Maharashtra for the Chandrapur constituency in the first phase on April 19, and then in Telangana for the Adilabad constituency in the fourth phase on May 13.

Read The Indian Express report here

In Maharashtra, which sends the second highest number of MPs to the Lok Sabha, the BJP turned to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to ensure sway over voters.

Why?

Despite split in two major regional parties — Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray and NCP led by Sharad Pawar in June 2022 and July 2023 respectively, BJP reckons a stiff political challenge from the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi — the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP). The caste polarisation, specifically in Marathwada with Maratha reservation protest led by activist Manoj Jarange Patil, coupled with anticipated sympathy factor in Thackeray and Sharad Pawar’s favour, BJP’s top leadership is leaving nothing to chance to turn the tide in its favour in the key state.

As the Election Commission of India (ECI), for the first time, set up polling booths at high-rise apartment complexes and housing societies to boost urban voter turnout for the Lok Sabha elections, Maharashtra topped the list with 150.

S Chockalingam, Maharashtra’s Chief Electoral Officer, told The Indian Express that 150 election booths were identified across Pune, Mumbai, Thane and Nagpur.

In response to Election Commissioner Sukbir Singh Sandhu’s appeal to make voting a pleasant experience, Chockalingam said that the aim was to enable voters to cast their ballot joyfully without waiting in long queues.

Nationalist Congress Party (SP) president Sharad Pawar said the Opposition will win 30-35 seats out of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra.

Pawar said he has never spoken about merging of his party with the Congress. “Congress and NCP have been working together right from the start. Both parties believe in the ideology of Gandhi and Nehru. We have contested the elections together and even today, we are helping each other in every constituency. Since we have the same ideology, it is important that we must work together,” he said.

With so many “flying objects”, Maharashtra has become the perfect place for political storm. In its quest to “finish off” its rivals, the BJP broke open rather too many political enterprises. It would have realised by now that while it is easy to herd cattle, cats are another matter. It will take no less than two elections before they are sent back into their party cages.

Read more here

INDIA bloc parties announced that they will participate in the exit poll debates on television this evening after the grouping's top leaders met and deliberated on the issue at Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge's residence.

The development came a day after the Congress said it has decided not to participate in any Lok Sabha exit poll debates on television channels. The party does not want to indulge in speculation and slugfest for TRP, it had said. Congress's media and publicity department head Pawan Khera said INDIA bloc parties met and decided to expose the BJP and its ecosystem on the prefixed exit polls.

Hatkanangle

Dhairyasheel Mane (Shinde-Sena) Vs Raju Shetti (SWS) vs Satyajeet Patil (Sena-UBT)

This bitterly fought election is more about the battle between farmers and sugar mill owners. Incumbent Dhairyasheel Mane is taking on farmer leader Raju Shetti and MVA’s Satyajeet Patil in a triangular fight.

Kolhapur

Sanjay Mandlik (Shinde-Sena) vs Shahu Maharaj Chhatrapati (Cong)

For the first time, Shahu Maharaj Chhatrapati, descendant of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj and Chhatrapati Shahu Maharaj, will be entering the electoral fray to take on Sena’s incumbent Sanjay Mandlik. This is also the first time in more than two decades that Congress will be contesting this seat.

Ratnagiri -Sindhudurg

Vinayak Raut (SS-UBT) vs Narayan Rane (BJP)

The seat is a bone of contention for the ruling alliance with BJP’s Union minister Narayan Rane having the last laugh. Rane will take on incumbent MP Vinayak Raut of Sena-UBT from this constituency known as Sena’s stronghold. For Rane—a bitter critic of Uddhav Thackeray—a victory is a must as he has lost previous two electoral battles.

Satara

Udayanraje Bhosle (BJP) Vs Shashikant Shinde (NCP-SP)

BJP Rajya Sabha MP Udayanraje Bhosle hopes to recreate the victory parade of 2019, but five years ago he had won as an united NCP candidate. A stronghold of NCP-SP chief Sharad Pawar, the opposition has fielded MLC Shashikant Shinde to take on Bhosle, a descendant of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj.

Sangli

Sanjaykaka Patil (BJP) vs Chandrahar Patil (SS-UBT) vs Vishal Patil (Ind)

Sangli has been a point of conflict for the Opposition MVA as Sena UBT refused to let go of this constituency despite a strong protest from Congress. While BJP’s incumbent MP claims he will win, Sena-UBT has fielded former wrestler Chandrahar Patil. Miffed with the choice, former CM Vasantdada Patil’s grandson Vishal has rebelled against Congress and will contest as an independent. The BJP hopes to benefit from this.

Madha

Ranjit Naik Nimbalkar (BJP) vs Dhairyasheel Mohite-Patil (NCP-SP)

The incumbent BJP MP saw an easy victory in Madha at the start of the election, but veteran politician Sharad Pawar’s political maneuvering gave an interesting turn to the battle when the influential Mohite-Patil family from Solapur as well as the royal Nimbalkar family from Satara switched sides from BJP to NCP (SP). The move will likely impact Madha and Solapur seats.

Solapur (SC)

Praniti Shinde (Cong) vs Ram Satpute (BJP)

In one of the toughest battles in Western Maharashtra, MLA Praniti Shinde is taking on BJP MLA Ram Satpute. While Satpute claims that his humble background and PM Narendra Modi’s charisma will grant him victory, Shinde has the backing of her CM father Sushil Kumar Shinde. With VBA and MIM not contesting, the battle has become one-on-one.

Latur (SC)

Sudhakar Shrungare (BJP) vs Dr Shivaji Kalge (Cong)

Incumbent BJP LS MP Sudhakar Shrungare is taking on a newcomer from Congress, Dr Shivaji Kalge, a well-known doctor in Latur. Shrungare’s battle has become tougher with the entire family of former CM, the late Vilasrao Deshmukh, led by his MLA son Amit, campaigning for Kalge and Marathas consolidating against BJP.

Dharashiv

Omraje Nimbalkar (SS-UBT) vs Archana Patil (NCP)

In this Sena stronghold, incumbent Nimbalkar is up against sister in law Archana Patil. Despite the rebellion led by CM Eknath Shinde, Nimbalkar had chosen to stay with Thackeray which earned him much popularity in the region. Thackeray held one of the biggest public rallies in Marathwada for Nimbalkar. Patil is a newcomer in politics and is wife of BJP MLA Rana Jagjitsinh.

Baramati

Supriya Sule (NCP-SP) vs Sunetra Pawar (NCP)

In one of the nation’s most high-profile contests, Ajit Pawar’s wife Sunetra is taking on incumbent LS MP and Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule. It is the first instance when Pawar family members are pitted against each other. The real battle, it is said, is being played out between Ajit Pawar and his estranged uncle Sharad Pawar.

Raigad

Sunil Tatkare (NCP) vs Anant Geete (SS-UBT)

The incumbent LS MP and ruling NCP state president Sunil Tatkare is to fight former union minister and Sena UBT’s Anant Geete. Despite being from the ruling side and heading the state unit of the party, Tatkare has not been able to step foot outside his constituency which has been a Sena stronghold. Post the Sena split, even though leaders joined hands with CM Eknath Shinde, most of the cadre is said to be with Geete.

A dramatic political reset since the last Lok Sabha election in 2019 has created ripples and echoes in Maharashtra’s political field — the cloak-and-dagger pulling down and putting together of governments and the split of two regional parties under the shadow of Central agencies ED-CBI and I-T, ending in two new alliances, of three parties each, on either side of the divide: The BJP plus Shinde Sena plus Ajit Pawar-led NCP versus Congress plus Shiv Sena-led by Uddhav Thackeray plus Sharad Pawar’s NCP.

But “Modi versus?” seems starkly inscribed into spatial reality. Among the people, the sizeable support still enjoyed by Narendra Modi has a new despite-it-all edge to it. In a state that has witnessed the BJP use its strong arm against political opponents and get away with it, there is more of a strain now on the aspirational voter’s willing suspension of disbelief.

Read more here

The outcome in Baramati constituency will reaffirm the leadership of Ajit Pawar within his own organisation as well Mahayuti. If Sunetra Pawar bags Baramati, it will help Ajit Pawar to reassert his leadership as the real NCP. If he fails, it will indicate his uncle Sharad Pawar’s upmanship, whose daughter and MP Supriya Sule is pitted against Sunetra.

The heat and dust kicked up during the five-phase elections for the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state between April 19 and May 20 may have subsided. The fate of parties has already been sealed in the boxes. Yet, there are moments of anxiety ahead of the counting on June 4 for the fiercely contested polls.

In Maharashtra, where the battle was between the Maha Yuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi, the stakes are high for the five big leaders–Sharad Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray, Eknath Shinde, Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar.

With 21 seats, Thackeray was projected by MVA as its main leader in Maharashtra. To what extent Thackeray capitalises the sympathy factor whipped in his favour post the split to retain his turf will be known on June 4.

Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis sat down with The Indian Express to discuss his assessment of the ground situation in the state, coordination problems between the members of the ruling Mahayuti alliance, Sharad Pawar, and Uddhav Thackeray.

Excerpts

The Lok Sabha Elections 2024 began on April 19 and concluded on May 20, 2024, with five phases of polling in Maharashtra. The state has 48 seats in the Lok Sabha. The final phase of voting in Maharashtra concluded on May 20, 2024, with a total voter turnout of voter turnout of 56.89%, which was the lowest among the five phases.

Read the full story here