Five years after the military standoff between India and China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s meetings with China’s President Xi Jinping, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and Liu Jianchao (head of the International Department of the Chinese Communist Party) signal an intent to repair the relationship with Beijing. Minister Jaishankar’s visit to China this week — his first since the 2020 skirmishes — for the SCO Council of Foreign Ministers meeting, taken alongside recent instances of widening engagement, reflects a thaw in bilateral ties. Recall that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Xi met on the sidelines of the BRICS summit last October, shortly after a new border patrolling arrangement was announced and a few days before the disengagement process officially concluded. Since then, NSA Ajit Doval, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, and Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri have all visited China. Other signs that the India-China relationship has been moving in a positive direction include an understanding to expedite the restoration of direct flights and easing of visa restrictions, and resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra. While Jaishankar has said that “a far-seeing lens” should be used for rebuilding ties, some key issues remain unresolved.
Post-disengagement, the de-escalation process — the withdrawal of troops from forward positions — hasn’t begun at the border. China’s restrictive trade practices, such as curbs on critical exports like rare earth magnets and high-tech manufacturing machinery, continue to be a stumbling block. These concerns were conveyed by Jaishankar to Wang, along with a pointed reminder that the SCO was founded to fight “three evils”: Terrorism, separatism, and extremism. At the same time, in an increasingly turbulent world order, and especially with an unpredictable occupant of the White House, re-engagement with China, or what Wang recently described as a “cooperative pas de deux of the dragon and the elephant”, is pragmatic policy. For example, the US and NATO threatening to sanction countries doing business with Russia — a move that would hit India and China hardest — underscores the need for a partnership. The fact, however, is that China continues to view its relationship with India primarily through a lens of competition, not cooperation. The most recent example is China’s growing military cooperation with Pakistan during Operation Sindoor. The power gap is also widening. India runs a trade deficit of over $100 billion with China. The latter continues to scale up its defence budget and capabilities. China also leads in critical technologies like AI, quantum computing, and rare earths. And Beijing is steadily strengthening its influence across South Asia, luring countries strategically important to India into its own fold — Bangladesh, most recently.
India must, therefore, remain vigilant. Alongside dialogue, to increase its leverage, New Delhi must focus on getting its own house in order: Accelerate economic reform, bolster technological capacity, and foster social and political unity. Some members of the Opposition have criticised Jaishankar’s China outreach. His calibrated diplomacy, however, was necessary. The China question demands long-term, strategic clarity at the domestic level as well. And on the foreign policy front, New Delhi must widen its engagement across the neighbourhood and beyond, to prevent Beijing from gaining a decisive upper hand in the region.
