Some elections matter more than others. As the long US presidential election season kicks off with the Iowa caucuses — both the Democratic and Republican candidates are chosen through an internal party election — and the Republican debate, the riveting run-up to the November polls has begun. US elections generate global interest for two reasons. First, America continues to be the largest economy, with considerable military and strategic heft. What happens in the US election will have a bearing on how other countries, particularly middle powers like India, orient themselves on the global stage. Second, the US’s immense soft power — particularly in the English-speaking world — has meant that America’s culture wars have a reach and influence far beyond its borders. Unfortunately, however, interest in American politics does not always translate into a reasoned engagement based on information and perspective. The impact of the US presidential elections on other countries, like India, is either over-determined or understood too little.
It is clear that Donald Trump — and the idea of “Trumpism” — is the elephant that isn’t in the room. Trump is not part of the Republican debate. The two “frontrunners” participating in the Republican debate this week — Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis — are far behind the former president. Trump’s judicial troubles — he is facing multiple criminal charges, including for inciting an insurrection — seem to have had little effect on his popularity so far. For the Democrats, barring any major surprises, President Joe Biden is likely to be the nominee, as incumbents are rarely defeated in the primaries.
Given the political polarisation in the US, it is not surprising that the election is being framed as a do-or-die battle by both sides. However, a reality check is called for, in America, and outside. The fear that an election result will completely alter the US’s foreign policy stance — its engagement with partners in the Indo-Pacific, for example — is greatly exaggerated. Nor will the fundamental nature of geopolitical competition with China alter with a change in the White House: Vis a vis globalisation and Beijing, Biden has continued in large part with Trump’s policies. It is important for the intellectual and strategic class in India to understand and analyse US politics through its own lens, not one borrowed from US media, or the diaspora. An objective understanding — with New Delhi’s interests as the basis — is needed from a policy and strategic perspective.
