It’s a chronicle of a coalition foretold. Given the fractured mandate in the February 8 general elections in Pakistan, and widespread perceptions that the army “managed” the polls, it is no surprise that the constituents of the new government are the same players that made up the Pakistan Democratic Movement alliance, which took office after Imran Khan’s ouster in 2022. Shehbaz Sharif of the PML(N) is set to be prime minister once more, while PPP president Asif Ali Zardari will be president, with Rawalpindi’s invisible hand guiding the ship. The PPP also gets the Senate chairmanship and the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab governorships while the chief ministers and Speaker of the National Assembly will be from the PML(N). Nawaz Sharif will play the grand elder to the alliance. Significantly, the PPP has chosen not to join the government — reportedly, it will merely vote with the ruling party on no-confidence and spending bills. Given the fragile alliance and the challenges he faces in office, Shehbaz Sharif may not be celebrating his crown of thorns.
Pakistan is suffering from a prolonged economic crisis — since 2011, its external debt has nearly doubled and its domestic debt has increased six-fold, while growth has slowed. It is on the way to a default on its debts, which will take the country even deeper into the abyss. Another IMF bailout, and even the economy’s medium-term viability requires hard choices and serious reform. The PM-elect will face the brunt of the ire against this inevitable belt-tightening even as the PPP — historically against pro-market reforms — will likely sidestep responsibility. Pakistan also faces a severe security challenge on its western frontier with Afghanistan and insurgencies in Balochistan. Then there’s the elephant that isn’t in the room. Despite Imran Khan being jailed and his party being disbanded, independents contesting with the former PM’s support have emerged as the single-largest block. Already, they are pointing to the “stolen mandate” and are likely to keep alive the new government’s crisis of legitimacy. General Asim Munir and the army’s support will be crucial for the government — both to manage internal differences as well as to govern.
For India, the new government in Pakistan may provide occasion for cautious optimism. Limited bilateral engagement could help strengthen the security gains of the past few years. For one, the 2021 ceasefire along the Line of Control in Kashmir has held, barring a few stray incidents. There has also been a drop in terrorist activity and support to terror from across the border. While Pakistan took a maximalist diplomatic position in the aftermath of the abrogation of Article 370, it is possible to open channels on specific issues. Given the unrest on its western flank, the army too has an incentive to work towards stability on the eastern front. The Sharifs, particularly Nawaz Sharif, have often displayed a willingness to engage with India. There was considerable personal warmth between Nawaz and PM Modi during the latter’s swearing-in in 2014 and the surprise 2015 visit to Lahore. If Islamabad and Rawalpindi are willing to begin a conversation in good faith, New Delhi should be open to the opportunity.
