The UNFCCC’s 30th Conference of Parties (COP 30) that begins in Belem, Brazil, on November 10 will mark a decade since the Paris Climate Pact came into force. A lot has changed since the landmark treaty was adopted, and at the same time, the needle hasn’t moved much on several longstanding climate issues. Renewables have edged out fossil fuels as the biggest source of energy. Yet, there has scarcely been a slowdown in the trajectory of global greenhouse gas emissions. Policies now in place are expected to shave off warming by 2100 by nearly one full degree — from 3.6 degrees Celsius pre-Paris to around 2.7 degrees Celsius. That’s still way short of the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold set in Paris. In the run-up to COP 30, more than 60 countries have submitted revised climate action plans. Many more, including India, are expected to do so at Belem. However, by all accounts, collective ambition will not be enough to keep global warming below the threshold set at Paris.
One of the priorities at COP 30 will be to create a roadmap to track global adaptation progress. Unlike mitigation, adaptation has no single global metric. The roadmap will also need to be sensitive to the fact that social inequalities make some people more vulnerable than others. In other words, while the Belem meet will need to find ways to scale up climate finances, it will also need to create mechanisms to ensure that the funds reach those who need them the most. The negotiators will have their task cut out in the next fortnight.
