The latest round of border talks between India and China did not lead to any solution, according to the official readout after the meeting. More than three years and three months have passed since the border standoff started in eastern Ladakh. This has led to an unprecedented buildup of troops on both sides. Over the last three years, the Indian Air Force is estimated to have airlifted nearly 70,000 troops and heavy platforms including tanks, artillery guns weighing over 9,000 tonnes as part of efforts towards enhancing the overall operational preparedness in eastern Ladakh. The government has been making the case for the last couple of weeks that it has built infrastructure in the border areas over the last nine years, which has led to faster deployment of forces since the standoff. Indian and Chinese foreign ministers and national security advisors had met last month, before the Corps Commander level talks, raising hopes that there could be a breakthrough — before Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet in Johannesburg for the BRICS leaders summit on August 22-23.
Hope has a precedent. In 2017, the two-and-half month Doklam border standoff was resolved just days before Modi and Xi met in Xiamen for the BRICS leaders’ summit. The three-week-long 2013 standoff in Depsang was resolved weeks before then Chinese Premier Wen Jaibao was visiting India. The window of opportunity exists between now and Chinese President Xi’s visit to India for the G20 summit. India has made it clear so far that the border standoff affects bilateral relations, and only a complete de-escalation will lead to normalcy in the ties. While disengagement at the specific friction points can be achieved, a broader de-escalation will take time. That is because troops and equipment will take time to be moved from the border areas. In that sense, this standoff is more complicated than the recent ones in the last 10 years. It is similar to the Sumdorong Chu standoff in 1986-87, which took almost seven years to completely disengage and de-escalate.
The fact that the border standoff started months after the 18th meeting between Xi and Modi at the Mamallapuram informal summit indicated that the buildup was at the directions of the political leadership in Beijing, not a local military operation. It became even clearer that it had the sanction of the Chinese Communist Party since the standoff has sustained over the last three years. Delhi must not budge and demand complete withdrawal of troops and de-escalation, before it normalises ties. Xi’s visit next month gives India some leverage; the government must use it.
