The good news from last week’s two-hour long virtual meeting between US President Joe Biden and the Chinese leader Xi Jinping is this: Washington and Beijing are talking to each other at the highest political level despite the rapidly deteriorating ties. If the problems between the world’s two most powerful nations had begun in the Trump era (2017-21), they are now racing down the slippery slope. The bad news, however, is that the two sides are talking past each other rather than to each other. That neither side was willing to call the talks “positive” or “constructive” suggests how far the two sides are. In fact, the objectives of Biden and Xi are quite divergent.
Biden is looking for a measure of stability in a relationship that has become increasingly volatile. The US President would like to keep the channels of communication open and create some safeguards to prevent the two sides from coming to blows. While recognising the depth of US’s contradictions with China, Biden would like to explore potential areas of cooperation such as mitigating climate change. For Xi, the priority is to persuade Biden to dilute if not end the American sanctions and compel Washington to accept China as an equal power, and cede Beijing primacy in Asia. To make matters worse, neither Biden nor Xi is in a position to make major concessions. Although some in the US have called on Biden to reduce some of the tariffs on Chinese goods imposed by Trump, Biden can’t afford to look weak before the midterm elections scheduled in the first week of November. Xi, who has projected himself as a strong champion of Chinese nationalism, can’t back off as he prepares for the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party later this year.
Biden and Xi have apparently agreed to explore the possibility of a physical summit between the two leaders at the end of the year. Hopefully, both the leaders will have greater political room to find some common ground. But the turbulence between the US and China is unlikely to respect the political calendar in either country. The last few years have seen Taiwan emerge as a dangerous flashpoint between the two nations. It is now about to boil over. Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, has plans to visit Taiwan during her current trip to Asia. Beijing is warning Washington not to play with fire on Taiwan. Hotheads in Beijing are demanding the use of force to prevent Pelosi from landing in Taiwan. The US military is making forces to cope with a potential military crisis. In Washington, the Republicans, who despise Democrat Pelosi, are urging her not to back down. Unless one or the other steps back, a perfect geopolitical storm is about to envelop Asia this week.
