Indian agriculture has traditionally been hostage to the vagaries of the southwest monsoon. Good and well-distributed rains during June-September usually translate into a bumper kharif crop that is planted during and harvested after the season, while it is the other way round when the monsoon fails. This time, the country received 7.9 per cent above the normal historical average rainfall for the season as a whole. However, excess rain in September (15.3 per cent above normal) and so far this month (39.4 per cent surplus) has not only delayed harvesting but also raised concerns over damage to the standing crop. Such worries have become less when it comes to the winter-spring or rabi crop. The abundant rainfall during the monsoon and after has filled India’s 161 major reservoirs to 91.4 per cent of their aggregate storage capacity as on October 9, in addition to recharging groundwater aquifers. That should be favourable for the upcoming cropping season and offset any significant kharif output losses.
In general, kharif crop production is turning less reliable due to the monsoon’s increasing unpredictability. While overall rainfall for the season may not have registered large swings, there is a clear movement towards fewer rainy days, delays and breaks interspersed with extreme precipitation. Rabi crops, on the other hand, are less prone to output volatility. The absence of flooding, mild temperatures with clear skies, and low pest and disease incidence during rabi enables Bihar’s farmers, for instance, to harvest maize yields at least twice that of the so-called regular kharif season. Not for nothing that India’s total rabi foodgrain production of 185.9 million tonnes (mt) exceeded the 168.1 mt from kharif during 2024-25. Compare this to what it was in 1990-91, when kharif foodgrain output stood at 99.4 mt and rabi at 77 mt. Even in pulses, potato, onion, tomato, garlic and seed spices, it is rabi production that matters more.
One reason for the above trend is the spread of irrigation. So long as the surplus monsoon rainwater can be stored in dams, ponds or underground and pumped up for conveying into fields, farmers are able to grow crops during rabi and even harvest higher yields. The main limiting factor — water — has been additionally addressed through drip, sprinkler and laser levelling technologies. These allow water to be sprayed, delivered precisely to the plant’s root zone, or distributed uniformly with minimum run-off. However, it’s not just water, but temperatures — the tendency for mercury spikes and heat stress in March, when the crop is in the final grain-filling stage — that are a constraint to rabi production. All the more reason why the government’s focus should be on investing in climate-smart breeding and irrigation infrastructure rather than untargeted farm subsidies and giveaways.
