There is no established correlation between the outcomes of assembly elections and the vote for the Lok Sabha, even when the former closely precedes the latter. In 2018, for example, the Congress won three of the five states that are set to go to polls in November, but the BJP ended up doing much better in them in the subsequent general election.
Yet, the results of the assembly polls — the electoral calendar for Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana was announced by the Election Commission Monday — will inevitably be parsed for what they say about the prospects of the major players in 2024. They will be read for the indications of which way the political winds might blow nationally.
Significantly, in three of the five states going to the polls, BJP and Congress are in a head-to-head contest. For Congress, which narrowly won MP last time (defections subsequently led to a BJP government), swept Chhattisgarh and had a comfortable win in Rajasthan in 2018, the current campaign will be judged on whether its organisational changes at the top and Rahul Gandhi’s attempt at crafting a new political idiom through the Bharat Jodo Yatra translate into electoral success.
After the Karnataka win, it will also be another major test for Mallikarjun Kharge’s leadership — his ability to manage differences within the Congress, especially in Rajasthan where CM Ashok Gehlot has been long at loggerheads with Sachin Pilot, will be watched. The party has also doubled down on the neo-Mandal agenda: It has announced a caste census in Rajasthan and promised the same in MP and Chhattisgarh. It is still an open question whether that politics will have a resonance on the ground with the 60.2 lakh first-time voters in all five states.
The BJP in its current avatar relies overwhelmingly on the PM’s popularity to win elections, often at the expense of state-level leadership. This strategy has not always yielded dividends, as in Karnataka earlier this year. In the poll-bound states now, the party is likely to draw attention to the Centre’s and PM’s successes and policies — G20, women’s reservation Bill, increased subsidies on LPG cylinders, etc.
However, the uncertainty about CM candidates may prove to be a hurdle: Vasundhara Raje has looked discontented in Rajasthan and, in MP, Shivraj Singh Chouhan is running a personality-centric campaign but has not been announced as the party’s CM face. Most significantly, as the BJP locks horns with the Congress in the context of the comeback of Mandal in a new form, the polls may indicate whether and how much the OBC vote, a sizeable portion of which has been moving to the BJP, can be wooed again by members of INDIA.
