In the face of US President Donald Trump’s diplomatic blitzkrieg on Ukraine, Europe — and Ukraine itself — confront the risk of marginalisation. After a 90-minute phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week, Trump announced that negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war would begin “immediately”. Officials from Washington and Moscow will reportedly hold talks in Saudi Arabia in the coming days to negotiate a potential peace agreement. Kyiv, however, has not been invited and does not plan to attend, while French President Emmanuel Macron is convening an emergency meeting of European leaders on the issue. Trump’s bold moves mark a sharp departure from the approach of his predecessor, Joe Biden, who had not spoken to Putin since the Russian invasion and had labelled him a “murderous dictator”. Trump’s outreach, effectively, ends nearly three years of the West’s isolation of Russia.
By all accounts, the Trump administration appears intent on getting along with the Kremlin and the resulting diplomatic dissonance between the US and Europe over Ukraine suggests that the West will remain a house divided in the near future. Russia currently occupies about a fifth of Ukraine and insists that Kyiv cede this land, which would eventually be rendered permanently “neutral”. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth appeared to echo this stance last week at the NATO headquarters in Brussels and dismissed a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders as “unrealistic” — a position undoubtedly welcomed by Moscow. Trump has even gone on to say that Ukraine “may be Russian” one day. Alarmed by the US president’s unilateral moves, Europe is unlikely to give in easily — the emergency summit hosted by Paris is an indication. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has reassured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that his country remains on an “irreversible path” to NATO membership, and that he will consider deploying British peacekeeping troops to support Kyiv. Trump’s plan stands in sharp contrast to Europe’s commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. If Trump’s deal moves forward, Europe’s best course of action may be to bolster its military alliance to effectively deter future Russian expansionism.
During his recent visit to the US, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that “India is not neutral, India is siding with peace”. Modi’s diplomatic engagements last week reflected India’s commitment to its ties with the US and France, the latter being the EU’s second-most powerful country after Germany. At the same time, Delhi considers Moscow a reliable partner and would welcome any development that arrests the deepening of China and Russia’s “no-limits” alliance. Peace in Europe would also bring economic stability, energy security, and increased trade opportunities for India on both sides of the divide. Western powers would have the time and the resources to shift their focus to countering China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific — a key strategic priority for India. If it ends up giving peace a chance, a potential Trump-Putin agreement would bring gains for India too.
