The reprieve to Imran Khan from Islamabad High Court following the Pakistan Supreme Court ruling that his arrest was illegal, may calm the chaos on the streets. His followers are now celebrating victory. But it is not the end of mud-wrestling in Pakistan. The world is witnessing a struggle for supremacy between two individuals with separate sources of power.
General Asim Munir, who heads the Pakistan Army, is being challenged by Imran Khan, hailed by his supporters as a messiah. The war between them, which goes back to Munir’s predecessor Qamar Javed Bajwa, and to his own bad history with Khan when he was ISI chief, has created divisions within the army, pitted the chief justice against his own justices, and polarised the people. All this at a time when the economy faces an imminent meltdown.
The breakdown in the compact between the various “stakeholders” of Pakistan will continue until one of the two principal actors blinks. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is waiting it out, hoping the Army chief prevails, because he is the government’s best bet to return to office.
Munir still has many instruments that he can use to overcome Khan. For one, freedom in this case is not the end of Khan’s legal troubles — he is booked in over a hundred others, to which may be added the destruction caused by his supporters upon his arrest. A victory for Munir will restore his own considerably weakened power and authority, which in turn will help him reclaim the Army’s pre-eminent position in Pakistan.
A victory for Imran Khan would mean that he could well return as PM. First, he would seek to remove Munir and replace him with a chief who can ensure his continuance in office.
But the last time an elected PM tried to sack an army chief, he was hauled into jail, and he stayed there until he struck a deal for exile in Saudi Arabia, while the army chief installed himself as president and continued in both offices for the next decade. Whatever may be the support for Khan within the army now, or the beef against Munir in the top brass, there is little to show that the Army itself has changed so much since 2009 that it will subordinate itself to a political leader, however messianic. Rather, the danger is that Imran’s medievalist vision will be used by sections of a weakened Army to push radical agendas. Pakistan needs to evolve into a real democracy under a popular but progressive leader. That is also what Delhi should hope for.
