An American election is never just about America. Governments and people around the world do not, of course, get a vote in who becomes the next US President — the former, especially, will have to navigate the currents that emanate from the White House, no matter the occupant. The US remains the world’s largest economy and arguably the most significant actor on the geopolitical stage. The election result will have a deep impact, then, at a particularly volatile global moment. Questions around trade and protectionism, conflicts and interventionism, and the mobility of labour and capital will be determined, not wholly perhaps, but in good measure by whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins this week. And the world — including and especially India — is waiting and hoping for the results of the collective wisdom of the American people.
It is disturbing to see the anti-migrant rhetoric on the campaign trail. Unlike Europe, the US is a country founded and enriched by migrants. Insular protectionism — in terms of capital and labour — goes against basic economic principles and could end up with the US squandering its comparative advantage. The US is India’s largest trading partner — in the first seven months of 2024 alone, bilateral trade stood at $72 billion. The US remains the top choice for Indian students studying abroad, and Indian labour, in crucial sectors such as medicine and technology, has a significant stake in the US. India is also home to the largest number of Global Capability Centres (1,700), which employ nearly 20 lakh people. Trump’s threats of protectionism and weaponising tariffs could negatively impact each of these sectors. The GCCs, for example, are the sort of high-value labour outsourcing that the Republican candidate has targeted. Talk of punitive taxation on companies exporting labour defies economic rationality and could squander the gains in controlling inflation. It is important to keep in mind, however, that campaign rhetoric does not translate into policy, especially vis-a-vis Delhi. On the geopolitical front, too, there are major stakes. Trump, as President, gave a major push to the Quad and backed the concept of the Indo-Pacific — Joe Biden doubled down on that legacy. This strategic convergence in Asia is good for both countries. The US-India relationship has enjoyed broad bipartisan support for some time now. Washington has also been cognisant of India’s development and energy needs vis-a-vis Russia and Iran. Hopefully, these pragmatic policies will be maintained, whoever the victor.
The world is currently in the grip of two major wars, both with expanding theatres. The consensus on globalisation and free trade has eroded, and the rise of China has added to the uncertainty. Ideas of bodily autonomy, women’s rights and identity can and do travel across borders. The turn America takes after November 5 — internally, towards diversity and externally, in how it sees its role in the world — will reverberate beyond its borders.
