The convening of the 17th round of India-China corps commander-level talks at the Chushul-Moldo border meeting point in eastern Ladakh on December 20, 12 days after the clash in Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh in the eastern sector, is a positive development. But unfortunately, it does not inspire confidence about Chinese intentions vis a vis the Line of Actual Control. The last round of talks was held in July, and in September, the government announced that the two sides had finished disengaging at Gogra Hot Springs, as had been agreed in the 16th round. After that, Beijing appeared reluctant to accede to Delhi’s push for another round, signaling that there was nothing more to discuss about the situation in eastern Ladakh, and certainly not a return to the status quo that existed before its incursions in April-May 2020. A joint statement that the two sides agreed to keep talking through military and diplomatic channels toward a “mutually acceptable resolution of the remaining issues at the earliest” suggests that there was no outcome from this round. It is also not clear if the “remaining” issues have been agreed upon by both sides. Apart from the fact that India now faces an altered status quo and that the PLA is rapidly building war-like infrastructure on its side, for India, the “remaining” issues are the presence of Chinese troops in the Depsang plains, and intrusions in the Demchok area.
Just as it did with the clash at Tawang, the Chinese side chose the timing for this round of talks in Ladakh, seeking to project the impression that it holds the cards. The sector-wise compartmentalisation makes the tensions seem manageable, but the reality appears to be that there is no predicting which part of the 3,500 km of the line will flare up suddenly, as it did on the morning of December 9. Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar flagged the seriousness of the situation when he told Parliament that the Indian deployment at the LAC is at its “highest level”.
Delhi should make a push for talks at the diplomatic level even as it ramps up military preparedness. From the short statement by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, it is unclear how prepared the Army was for the transgression at Tawang, despite the advanced Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance devices that have reportedly been installed in that area. Whatever the facts on the ground and regardless of how the tensions will unfold, the government would be well advised to take the Opposition parties into confidence at the earliest. A wide political consensus is what the country needs when confronted with tensions at the borders and it is the government’s task and responsibility to build it.
