Nepals three major political parties the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists,the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist never get tired of advocating the politics of consensus,but they have failed to come even to a minimum understanding of electing a prime minister in the past seven months. Grilled,booed and jeered by the people,the three parties finally took recourse to amending the law on the election of the PM by the parliament. Those who get the lowest votes will be eliminated and neutral voting or abstaining will be prohibited. When only two candidates are left,the winner will be decided by a simple majority. If all goes according to schedule,the country will have a new PM by February 3.
But people who feel let down by the current set of leaders are sceptical of the effectiveness of such a PM,given the fact that he would be more a product of the compelling law than of an agreed agenda and political understanding.
Over the past two weeks,after President Ram Baran Yadav had renewed the election process first by giving 10 days to the House to explore a consensual approach and then,on its expiry,asking them to go by a simple majority process political parties failed even to decide on their candidates. Madhav Nepal continues to remain the caretaker PM for a record eight months.
In the midst of all this,Yadav left for India Kolkata,Chandigarh and Delhi on a 10-day visit beginning January 27. The visit was on an invitation of the Medical College and Hospital,Kolkata,and the Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research,Chandigarh,from where he got his MBBS and postgraduate degrees respectively. The visit was meant to be a private one. But the government of India volunteered to make it official. This gives enough hint that India,concerned about the lack of progress in the constitution-making process in Nepal and the absence of a full-fledged government all these months,will begin a serious review Nepal situation. This is a time when the president is under pressure from some political quarters at home to assume executive role,since a caretaker PM cannot be allowed to continue indefinitely. India seems to be weighing that option and its likely implication for the peace process.
Is the president willing to have executive powers? Wont the continuation of a caretaker PM beyond six months set a dangerous precedent? Indias recognition of a presidential takeover may also influence the stance of the outside world on the emerging situation in Nepal.
A readiness on the part of the president soon after his India visit would give fresh ammunition to the political parties,the UCPN-M in particular,to suspect an India hand in all that. It could also trigger a new political equation that could bring together the radical left,including Maoists,which might challenge the president and other political parties. That will mean a collapse of the constitution-making process.
People may not come out on the streets to defend one party or the other this time round,given the lack of seriousness on their part to implement the comprehensive peace agreement or to adopt a new constitution by May 28. In fact,there is growing opposition towards leaders and members of the constituent assembly. CPN-UML Chairman Jhalanath Khanal,who is also an aspirant for the PMs post,was slapped at a public meeting recently. The local administration,which had ordered the mans detention for 15 days,was forced to release him as public support for him almost took the form of a campaign leader versus people. Similarly,in the past two months,people,especially in rural areas,have been assembling in public places and offering tarpan a ritual for the dead to the 601 members of the constituent assembly. This exercise has hardly provoked any protest from the parties; instead it has people in thousands gathering to cheer the organisers who treat the parliamentarians as dead,and therefore incapable of creating a constitution.
Scepticism apart,President Yadav told a recent gathering of top political leaders,including PM Madhav Nepal and Maoist leader Prachanda,that under no circumstance would he endorse a draft constitution that would have ethnicity-based federalism which would threaten the countrys unity and integrity. That tussle appears around the corner. A fight between political parties and the first head of state of republican Nepal is not what is required at this stage.
yubaraj.ghimire@expressindia.com
