A crisis brings oddballs together. An emergency can unify those with a bitter past. An existential crisis can coalesce even erstwhile sworn enemies. The Patna Summit (the Opposition meet deserves a dignified moniker) which had several of India’s leading opposition parties come together under the indefatigable stewardship of Nitish Kumar, is an extraordinary happenstance, make no mistake about it. Expectedly the Bharatiya Janata Party has ridiculed it as a desperate measure for the survival of dynastic political parties, a shibboleth that has worked wonders for it in the past, but which may be now on tired legs.
The BJP has a laundry list of powerful dynastic family members, and the world knows that internal democracy within it is at best a meretricious chimaera. When was the last time one saw a genuine contest for the party president’s position? The BJP appears frazzled by the Patna Summit because honestly, if its political arrogance is so insuperable that it cannot read the obvious, it could be committing political hara-kiri. As for the Opposition, this is quite literally the throw of the last dice. They must make it count. There are five fundamental factors that they need to ruminate on.
First, they need to define the big-ticket issues on which they can checkmate the BJP. There is no dearth of them: Youth unemployment, stagnant real wages of the unorganised sector, a shrinking middle-class, Adani’s alleged contract grabs and the rise of brazen plutocracy, the savage laceration of constitutional institutions, democratic deconsolidation, and above all, the poisonous toxification of India’s society. The list is long. If all the opposition parties repeatedly hammer the same message to their electorate, trust me, their collective crescendo will overcome the silence of the largely compromised, craven mainstream media. And their voice will catch the national public imagination, apropos Adani, Manipur, wrestlers’ protest, etc., where they have punched above their weight.
Secondly, they need to draw some red lines: Under no circumstances should they indulge in ad hominem attacks on each other even inadvertently (Congress and TMC need to stop their silly slugfests). But bad habits die hard, so this is easier said than done but it is a prerequisite for increasing public confidence. It gives the BJP an opening to tarnish them as opportunistic dealmakers who quintessentially despise one another. Thorny issues must be recognised but they can be amicably put on the backburner till 2024. The big prize is 2024; nothing should distract from the main goal.
Third, the Opposition needs to have a clear strategic plan to address what is likely to be BJP’s 2024 electoral pitch; for instance, the Ram temple construction (isn’t that a Supreme Court verdict that the BJP is hijacking as if it is their executive decision?), welfare subsidies (compare that to Rs 10 lakh crore corporate debt write-offs, tax incentives to Big Business totalling Rs 145,000 crore per annum, collection of astronomical excise duties on oil, the increase in poverty, inequality, unemployment, destruction of small and micro businesses, etc.), and digitisation of public services (isn’t technological innovation and consumer adoption of the same an evolutionary process in any modern society?). In short, sharp rejoinders that are evidence-based but are also communicated savvily will have to be a crucial ingredient in the Opposition playbook. After the mammoth rout of the BJP in Karnataka and their disgraceful apathy in handling the Manipur conflagration, the dubious double-engine bromide has probably derailed permanently for the BJP. For the Opposition, new doors have opened.
Fourth, while a single-opposition candidate per Lok Sabha seat is a great idea, it might turn out to be a utopian construct (vote transfers are not a linear by-product). Further, it might have two deleterious consequences. BJP and Modi will mostly play the victim card and mobilise disaffected, nonchalant voters from all sides. Secondly, rebel candidates (propped up by the cash-rich BJP) may end up demolishing the entire game plan, being equivalent to a multi-party contest. A better idea may be for political parties to only contest if they have an authentic opportunity to win; the “ low-hanging fruits strategy”. Or else, not contest at all. But this should be left to their discretion. This will be the litmus test of political leadership.
Lastly, Hindutva is an emotive subject; it is vaccinated against rational economic arguments (jobless growth, high prices, rising inequality), intellectual conversations about institutional debilitation and governance failures, and abstruse paradigms such as the Idea of India, which many do not understand. None of these worked in 2019, as India was swept away by the hyper-majoritarian nationalism war cry. The Opposition needs to challenge BJP’s faux nationalism and de-hyphenate Hinduism from Hindutva. They must take the bull by the horns. They cannot ignore the elephant in the room, Hindutva. Modi needs just 40 per cent of the majority Hindu vote of 80 per cent (giving BJP 32 per cent of the aggregate vote-share) to be at the halfway mark. It will help if the Opposition realises that a vast section of the majority population is religious, but not communal. There is a need for dialogue and engagement with them. BJP has so far received a red-carpet free pass. It has got away with crummy claptrap using polarisation politics, totally unchallenged by confused adversaries.
In summary, it is important that the Opposition recognises that defeating BJP must not be treated as just an electoral objective, but a national responsibility given the visibly clear and present danger of authoritarian proclivities of this government. The road to Delhi must go through Patna. If former US President Barack Obama has publicly talked of “India will start pulling apart”, it is time to start stitching up. Sometimes winning becomes a duty.
The writer is a former spokesperson of the Congress party
