Rabi sowing is off to a sluggish start. One reason is the delayed harvesting of kharif crops, especially paddy, in states such as Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh that has, in turn, slowed the planting of wheat.
The acreage lag may reduce in the coming weeks, but the crop sown beyond the optimal time is more exposed to risks from temperature spikes, like in March 2022. However, what is of more immediate concern is the water situation. Cumulative rainfall since October has been about 26 per cent below average.
The lack of winter rain comes on top of a not-so-great southwest monsoon. While the monsoon rain was overall “normal”, it was unevenly distributed temporally (dry June and August) and spatially (deficient/subpar in eastern UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Karnataka, western Maharashtra and Marathwada). The agriculture ministry has estimated production of kharif cereals, pulses, oilseeds and also cotton and sugarcane to be lower this time compared to last year.
The prospects for rabi don’t look too bright either, for now. The winter-spring grown crops — from wheat, mustard and chana to onion, garlic and jeera — rely on water in underground aquifers and dams, besides the occasional showers from the northeast monsoon and western disturbance winds.
The latest data shows water levels in major reservoirs to be 20.2 per cent below last year and 92.9 per cent of the 10-year-average for this time. Reservoir levels are particularly low in the South (including the Nagarjuna Sagar, Srisailam, Somasila, Krishna Raja Sagara, Tungabhadra, Malaprabha, Mettur, Sholayar and Aliyar dams) and the cane belt of Maharashtra (Ujjani, Jayakwadi, Manjara and Girna).
And with a strengthening El Niño, forecast to last right up to April-June, the possibility of moisture stress for the standing rabi crop cannot be ruled out. Yields could also suffer from higher-than-normal temperatures, often seen during El Niño years.
The Narendra Modi government has been very proactive in supply-side management. The measures so far have ranged from the not-so-desirable (banning/curbing wheat, rice, sugar and onion exports and imposing stock limits on pulses) to sensible (restoring the monthly foodgrain quota for ration cardholders from 10 kg to the original 5 kg).
Given the rabi production uncertainties — and the political costs of double-digit retail inflation in cereals and pulses (dal-roti) ahead of national elections — it needs to do more. The current 40 per cent duty on wheat imports must be scrapped.
So long as the government is procuring the grain at its minimum support price, which has been significantly raised, farmers cannot complain. Nor does a 60 per cent customs duty on chana and 50 per cent (plus a minimum import price of Rs 200/kg) on yellow/white peas make sense. Augmenting supplies has to be accorded top priority today.
