By Arvind Kumar and Pankaj Kumar
Nitish Kumar led the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) towards a landslide victory in the Bihar assembly elections. The most surprising element of this election has been the performance of Kumar’s JDU. Unlike in the last election, Kumar’s party has performed extraordinarily well. The Opposition had alleged that an ailing Kumar would not be able to rule the state this time. But voters have completely rejected this narrative. What lies beneath the extraordinary performance of Nitish Kumar in this election?
We explain Nitish Kumar’s JDU’s performance through the media voter model, whose Indian version can serve as a middle path. We argue that Kumar symbolises the middle path in the Bihar election. His supporters also come from those social groups that stand between extremes. This has made Kumar indispensable in Bihar’s politics.
The world over, electoral studies have used a model of the median voter theorem to explain people’s voting behaviours and the victories of parties: If voters are arranged on an ideological spectrum, the median voter (middle voter) best represents the behaviour of the whole group. In normal circumstances, most voters take a middle position on different issues. Therefore, the political parties should always move toward the median voters to capture the most voters. Improving this model in the Indian context, famous political scientists Lloyd Rudolph and Susanne Hoeber Rudolph introduced the concept of centrism in their seminal book In Pursuit of Lakshmi: The Political Economy of the Indian State to explain the nature and character of our electoral politics. They argued that different sections of voters push political parties towards the centre. We use the middle path.
In Bihar’s politics, the core supporters of the RJD (Muslims and Yadavs) and the BJP (upper castes) represent the two extremes of the state’s politics. Kumar’s support groups (Extremely Backward castes, Mahadalits, and women) represent the middle path. The state’s voters crave change. They remember a period when politics was more like anarchy than peace. People now want to distance themselves from the political chaos reminiscent of the RJD’s rule.
On the other hand, some people are worried about the BJP’s complete control. In this context, Kumar emerges as a symbol of the “middle path”, believing in politics based on logic and balance, not confrontation. This is why, while other leaders engage in shrill slogans and confrontational politics, Kumar quietly does what he specialises in: Maintaining power, stability, and reassuring the public that governance is still under his control. The hallmark of Kumar’s politics is that he is neither an extremist nor completely popular or disliked. But when it comes to voting, he emerges as the most credible figure. This confidence, too, formed the foundation of the NDA’s victory this time.
With his policy initiatives, Kumar has instilled confidence in the deprived and marginalised sections of society that they are no longer merely a vote bank, but active participants in policymaking and power-sharing. This shift indicates a new self- and political awareness within the social structure, which has given depth and durability to Kumar’s politics.
Kumar is a visiting lecturer at the University of Hertfordshire and an Associate Fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies, University of London. Kumar is a PhD scholar at Jamia Millia Islamia
