I am not a defence expert, even though I was a keen member of the Parliamentary Consultative Committee on Defence. But, can anyone call themselves a defence expert after Operation Spider’s Web? Carried out by Ukraine, it saw 117 drones, each reportedly costing less than Rs 50,000, apparently destroying or damaging 41 Russian aircraft — most of them strategic cruise missile carriers — including at a location 4,000 km from the Ukrainian border. In another instance, several US B-2 stealth bombers flew thousands of kilometres, passed over enemy territory, bombed Iranian nuclear facilities and returned safely, all undetected. Experts will propose dramatic changes in defence strategy, just as the art of war changed with the invention of gunpowder, machine guns, fighter planes, rockets, nuclear bombs, missiles etc. In light of recent developments, I have the following observations on future planning.
First, fighter planes are flying ducks, and horribly expensive, too. Earlier, fighters were lost in dogfights; now, they can be shot down in one’s own air space from enemy territory. It is foolish to use them when a Rs 50,000 drone can do the job much better at a fraction of the cost. It could be argued that a fighter plane can carry much bigger payloads, but with precision munitions, this is no longer so critical. In any case, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) can be designed to carry payloads of any size. Besides, for precision delivery of large payloads, missiles are the best. Our Agni missiles can hit almost anywhere in the world accurately. They are our pride and the best demonstration of atmanirbharta; we owe a lot to former president A P J Abdul Kalam and Tessy Thomas — the DRDO’s former director general of aeronautical systems and project director for Agni-IV — for them.
Even stealth fighters have no place in future warfare — sooner rather than later, better radar technology or satellite-based observation techniques will be developed to detect them. The DRDO and HAL should stop wasting resources on fighters. Only transport planes and transport choppers will be relevant in the future. Even reconnaissance planes will be obsolete, with satellites doing a much better job.
Second, aircraft carriers are sitting ducks for UAVs. A torpedo can also sink even the most protected carrier. And protecting one requires a lot of paraphernalia — it’s like an emperor who needs to be closely guarded. They are also enormously expensive: The USS Gerald R Ford cost $13.3 billion to build. India has two aircraft carriers: INS Vikramaditya and INS Vikrant. Vikramaditya has a displacement of 44,500 tonnes and Vikrant around 43,000. Both cost a fortune. China has three and is building one more. Their only purpose is to carry fighter planes and helicopters. They are good for national pride and not much else — don’t build more. The money can be used to develop equipment that is far more critical.
Third, tanks are expensive. They can be immobilised with drones, and there are a variety of shells that can destroy any battle tank. They can easily be replaced with more effective and less expensive equipment — don’t waste money on them.
Fourth, future wars will be satellite/UAV-driven conflicts. Not only will these track everything, they will deliver the munitions as well, including nuclear warheads. Spend lots of money on these.
All over the world, the best defence equipment is manufactured by the private sector. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has focused on the development and production of defence equipment locally. He knows what he wants. It has produced some good results like the Akashteer air defence control and reporting system, designed and produced by BEL, which was very effective during Operation Sindoor. The DRDO’s wings should be clipped drastically and it should stick to its areas of core competence, such as missile technology. Let the private sector do the rest, without any supervision by the DRDO. They will produce world-class products. Give them a free hand and have a large PLI for the sector.
Our armed forces are incredibly competent and we need to give them the best for future warfare.
Alphons is a former Union minister and author of The Winning Formula
