Madhya Pradesh has traditionally served as an illustration of a steady two-party political competition. Unlike the four previous Assembly elections in the state, the political narrative during the 2023 campaign is going to be a little different. The BJP is planning to focus its campaign on highlighting the achievements of its government in the last 18-odd years, without focusing on any chief ministerial face. Congress, on the other hand, is trying to focus on issues of youth unemployment, inflation, corruption and farmers’ unrest. Interestingly, both political parties are trying to share a wishlist of freebies to lure voters.
In the last two decades, Madhya Pradesh has become one of the strongholds of the BJP in the Hindi heartland and has yielded extraordinary electoral outcomes in the party’s favour. The BJP has been in power in the state almost throughout except for a short stint of 15 months in 2018, when the Congress came to power by a wafer-thin majority. It could not sustain it due to the Jyotiraditya Scindia-led block of 22 MLAs switching over to the BJP.
This Assembly election is going to have the shadow of both the 2018 election results and the Congress government debacle that followed in 2019. As the longest-serving chief minister in the state, his style of delivering political goods has undoubtedly made Shivraj Singh Chouhan very popular. But at the same time, there appears to be a fatigue among the electorate. Unlike in 2018, the face of the state leadership this time is that of a collective leadership, with the central leadership leading the campaign instead of Chouhan. This is, by default, sending out a message of an attempt to diffuse anti-incumbency.
After 18 years in power, the BJP has its share of other challenges. Factionalism within the party is surfacing at different constituency levels. With almost all tickets announced by both parties, infighting and bickering are out in the open. The 2018 election is remembered for the immense anti-incumbency against sitting MLAs of both the BJP and the Congress. Fifty-eight sitting MLAs of the BJP (including 13 Ministers) and 17 sitting MLAs from Congress had lost the election in 2018. This is a reflection of not gauging the electorate’s disapproval of a particular candidate. This time, the BJP has denied tickets to 29 sitting MLAs. The denial of tickets to both sitting MLAs and those who lost in the 2018 elections across the two parties is creating a wave of dissent.
Madhya Pradesh can be broadly divided into seven regions out of its 230 seats. These are Chambal (34), Bundelkhand (26), Vindhya (30), Mahakoshal (38), Madhya Bharat (36), Malwa-North (38), and Malwa-Tribal/Nimar (28). The pattern of each region has been distinct — Chambal, Bundelkhand and Vindhya have always witnessed the presence of BSP with a committed vote bank whereas the rest of the four regions have been majorly confined to bipolarity. Interestingly, in 2018, the Congress did exceedingly well in Chambal, Mahakoshal and Malwa-Tribal/Nimar, which contributed enormously to its tally. In this election, too, regional dynamics will be a big determinant in the final tally of the parties.
The Shivraj Singh Chouhan government has stressed a patron-client model, where individual beneficiary-oriented schemes, such as the Ladli Behna Yojana, were a special focus to strengthen the voter base, particularly among women. This over-focus on women, however, has sent an adverse message among unemployed youth, who are feeling deceived. Madhya Pradesh is an agricultural state and while the state government has taken initiatives to facilitate a favourable environment for farmers through various schemes, rising input costs due to inflation and inadequate prices for agricultural produce have raised the eyebrows of this community, particularly small and marginal farmers.
Congress is likely to raise issues of youth unemployment, corruption, inflation, and farmer unrest. Besides these, caste census, atrocities against SC/ST and a long list of freebies to counter the BJP’s political plank are also part of the party’s campaign strategy. The issue of the Old Pension Scheme is also being talked about as it has already given political dividends to Congress in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka.
The recent elections have witnessed polarisation in the Hindi heartland, creating concerns for the Congress. The party has specifically raised the concerns of OBCs and their under-representation in an attempt to counter this. However, the BJP has a strong hold over these communities and it would be interesting to notice the impact of the issue on the electorate. Among the STs, the Congress enjoys an upper hand. In 2018, out of 47 ST seats, Congress got 30. These 47 seats, mostly from Malwa-Tribal/Nimar, Mahakoshal and Vindhya are likely to become crucial deciding factors this time as well.
It can be inferred from these that this election again, in all probability, will witness a close fight between the BJP and the Congress, and might, to a great extent, reflect the situation in the 2018 elections. Both parties are fighting dissension against the selection of candidates in more than three dozen seats. The repercussions of these rebellions can be detrimental for both. Some dissenters are planning to try their luck with the BSP, AAP and as independent candidates. These votes can be crucial in close fights and have the potential to spoil the prospects of either party. The upcoming Assembly elections is unlikely to be a wave election for any political party. Instead, an undercurrent is discernible which may yield surprising results in several places.
The writer is a political analyst and Director, Madhya Pradesh Institute of Social Science Research, Ujjain
