After the dissolution of Pakistan’s National Assembly, a little-known Senator from Balochistan, Anwar-Ul-Haq Kakar has taken over as the caretaker Prime Minister. He is widely believed to play second-fiddle to the army chief, General Syed Asim Munir. Earlier this month, former PM Imran Khan was hurriedly sentenced by a trial court and jailed. His legal team is making efforts to get an order for the suspension of the judgment, and may eventually get it. However, Imran may soon be sentenced in another case to keep him and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) continually entangled — nudging the PTI towards a slow political death before elections are held over the next four to six months.
Army Chief Asim Munir is expending an effort to position himself as the person who will revive Pakistan’s economy, fight militancy, play political “patron” and secure a seat at the high table in international affairs. While this may seem like the same-old script vis a vis Pakistan’s tryst with democracy, there are compelling factors that could influence matters in the coming months.
The withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan has hit the Pakistan army negatively. Despite frequent threats by the Pak army to the Afghan Taliban for the latter providing a safe haven to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) network, the TTP continues to mount deadly attacks on Pakistani forces. As against over 850 attacks mounted by TTP and Baloch networks in 2022, till July this year both networks, which seem to be coordinating actions, have claimed over 727 attacks, including complex suicide attacks in cantonment areas and police headquarters in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Balochistan and Karachi. According to the media, since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, more than 650 uniformed personnel of Pakistan have been killed and over 1,000 injured in militant attacks.
Munir’s open allegation about the involvement of Afghan nationals in militant attacks in Pakistan has invited sharp rebuke from the Taliban, which, rejecting the charge, reminded Pakistan that they arrested 43 and killed 18 Pakistani cadres of the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) involved in a number of suicide attacks in Afghanistan last year. The Pakistan army has lost all control over its protégé, the Taliban, having nurtured it since 1994. It has also lost the “geostrategic heft” it enjoyed with the West in “controlling and directing” the Taliban. Open praise for the Taliban for its role in “countering international terror groups” in Afghanistan by US President Joe Biden has further eroded the Pak army’s exalted position vis a vis the counter-terrorism interests of the West in the region.
The army is battling a dire security situation in the provinces of KPK and Balochistan, crucial to the success of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Successive army chiefs have personally assured China of protecting its personnel and operations. Within less than a week, Baloch militants mounted a deadly suicide attack on a convoy of Chinese engineers near Gwadar and “mobs” reportedly attacked churches and Chinese settlements in Faisalabad on charges of blasphemy. The failed assurances will invite greater pressure from China on the security situation.
The army, with some support from the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), responded to the May 9 violence, by slapping scores of cases against Imran, arresting thousands of PTI workers, pressuring top PTI leaders to quit the party and proposing military courts for trial of over 100 civilians for violence against army installations.
Imran hit back by unleashing a dazzling social media campaign showcasing his fight against a “corrupt and authoritarian” regime to millions through videos of brutish raids, “unjust” arrests of cadres and his numerous visits to courts for “false” cases. Imran eloquently discussed issues of deep interest to common people as well as concerns common with the West, by calling for the re-establishment of rule of law, civilian supremacy and upholding of human rights in Pakistan. By consistently stressing that he would rather go to jail than leave Pakistan, he has distinguished himself from other politicians who left the country when deposed. Notwithstanding the army’s role in supporting him in the 2018 elections, he has now become one of the tallest leaders in Pakistan who cannot be wished away even if he remains in jail. The social media campaign centred on Imran’s die-hard messages for “true freedom” of people has continued non-stop.
The army top brass has also perhaps realised that the rank and file are divided over their role vis a vis the political power they wield and faulty policies that have invited a backlash. Some senior army officers, including former Lahore Corps Commander Lt General Salman Ghani, who did not retaliate against mobs ransacking his house on May 9, have been sacked. The Army Act and Official Secrets Act have been amended for stricter control not for civilians alone, but also for serving and retired army personnel. That explains why Imran has been praising the army as an institution while attacking its top leadership.
The courts, perhaps sensing that the army is under some pressure, seem to be taking a cautious-but-legal approach in cases against Imran. Interestingly, lawyers have become a powerful voice in Pakistan, despite differing political ideologies, while the army-judiciary link appears weakened. The outgoing defence minister has stated that the army had been trying to motivate the opposition to unseat Imran since 2019 and finally succeeded in 2022. This adds credulity to Imran’s allegations against General Bajwa for removing him from office and General Munir for conspiring to not allow him to contest elections.
There are allegations about the role that China plays in shaping political power. It is alleged that China was not happy with General Qamar Bajwa sacking Nawaz Sharif in 2017 and favouring Imran in the 2018 elections. Some questions raised by experts include whether Bajwa sought to undo the 2018 action under Chinese persuasion with a “psyop operation”, which led to a cypher message emanating from the Pakistan embassy in Washington, quoting a US official, claiming the latter’s desire to sack the Imran government. Did Imran take the bait and naively accuse the US of the loss of his government, or did he just use the cypher to garner attention from the masses who were likely to believe any anti-US story?
China has been a holy cow for Pakistan’s elite who avoid dragging it into any public debate — but this too seems to be changing. The Chinese are not going to care about the rule of law, democracy or human rights in Pakistan, but would definitely want to create political consensus, stability and economic growth in order for CPEC to succeed. The Chinese already wield considerable influence and post-elections, are expected to use it to strengthen commitment to the CPEC and other interests that Pakistan can serve.
On the other hand, European countries have continued to engage closely with Pakistan on electoral reforms to help strengthen democracy. The EU has, on Pakistan’s invitation, sent Election Observer Missions (EOMs) in the last three general elections in 2008, 2013 and 2018. These have diligently documented imperfections in processes as well as the extra-constitutional role of the army.
Further, on July 20, the EU listed individuals and entities for serious human rights violations, including two Taliban Ministers, the acting Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Afghanistan and army officers from other countries. The sanctions may well signal to Pakistan that similar sanctions could be applied against its elite, including the judiciary, polity and army for violation of human rights. Apart from crucial economic bailouts, the army would surely need the US-led West to influence the Taliban to ease levels of violence in Pakistan.
Following the recent visit of US CENTCOM Commander General Michael Kurilla to Pakistan, it has been reported that both sides have revived the Communication Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CIS-MOA), a security pact which had expired in 2020 after being in effect for 15 years. Thus, if the US-led West pushes for timely and reasonably-monitored elections with the participation of all players, including Imran, the army may not be able to oppose it. However, more complex factors may emerge in Pakistan, including voices from within and from the region, which could impact the final script in Pakistan.
The writer is an IPS officer. Views are personal
