When the Congress,under Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy,returned to power in Andhra Pradesh in 2009,it was believed that the party would be a force to reckon with for a long time. But YSRs death in a helicopter crash in September 2009 dramatically changed the states political environment. In less than two years,the Congress seems to have lost its hold on the politics of the region and that,in turn,is leading to new developments that are redefining electoral equations.
The YSR Congress,a splinter group from the Congress,was formed by YSRs disgruntled son Jaganmohan Reddy. Then the newly formed Praja Rajyam Party by actor Chiranjeevi merged with the Congress. There has also been the revival of the struggle for a separate state of Telangana that YSR had managed to contain when he was at the helm. The demand for Telangana created a new political phenomenon: of politicians expressing allegiance to their region as against their party. In Andhra Pradesh now,the region you belong to is more important than the party or ideology you represent.
In order to survive politically and get the mandate of the electorate,legislators across parties are compelled to indicate that they would preserve the interests of the region they come from,even in defiance of party diktats. This conflict between loyalty to the region and to the party is further complicated by the loosening of the grip of national leadership over regional leaders and local dynamics. This was evident in the recent crisis in Karnataka as well where the central leadership of the BJP had little or no say in the way B.S. Yeddyurappa made his exit as CM or in the way his successor was chosen. This weakening hold of national leadership is a reversal of the political process introduced by Indira Gandhi,who had a direct connect with the electorate and who undermined local leadership with her interference in state politics.
State-level leaders often emerge from a reworking of caste equations and by imagining policies that are popular with the electorate. In Andhra Pradesh,YSR had rolled out a large number of welfare policies for the poor,including free housing,subsidised rice and special transport facilities in rural areas for farmers to take their produce to the market. These appealed to various sections of the electorate. It is this legacy of YSR that Jagan is attempting to appropriate. He has emerged as a force,and this should be seen in the context of a debilitated Congress. The resignation letters submitted by its legislators from the Telangana region had weakened the party. Now,27 more MLAs have submitted their resignations to the speaker and they are set to join Jagans YSR Congress.
The Congress,in order to stop Jagans surge,found a way forward by discrediting the legacy and image of YSR after the CBI filed an FIR against the former chief minister in an ongoing investigation into the allegation that his family has amassed assets disproportionate to known sources of income. This,the Congress believes,will also strengthen its claim of fighting corruption. But the legislators bid to join Jagan has complicated the survival of political parties.
Jagans hold over the electorate is restricted to Rayalaseema and the Andhra region. In fact,when he attempted to take out his Odarpu Yatra into Telangana,his entourage was attacked by students. In order to counter Jagans popularity in the Andhra region,the Congress carried out negotiations with Chiranjeevi,which fructified in the Praja Rajyam Party,which managed to get 27 per cent of votes in the last assembly elections,merging with the Congress on the eve of Rajiv Gandhis birth anniversary. The alliance might give some comfort to the Congress.
But Telangana is a more complicated case. In spite of its silence on the issue of Telangana,the Telugu Desam Party still retains formidable support from backward castes. The electoral conflict in the Telangana region is now primarily between the TDP and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS),with little prospects for the Congress,given the way it handled the demand for a separate state.
The TDP is already making noises about introducing a no-trust motion in the assembly and N. Chandrababu Naidu,in the backdrop of the investigations against Jagan,is on anti-corruption mode and planning even to go on a hunger strike in support of Anna Hazares campaign.
What is certain in this changing scenario is that local dynamics will have a greater influence in state politics,especially in the absence of tall national leaders.
The writer teaches at the Centre for Political Studies,JNU
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