A month after the Gen Z protests and the government’s violent reaction to them, Nepal appears calmer. But is this tranquility deceptive?
K P Oli’s forced resignation on September 9 and the Nepal Army’s refusal to obey his order to crush the youth protesting against corruption have created a political situation that was not envisaged in the country’s constitution.
Installing a non-parliamentarian, a former Supreme Court Chief Justice, as the new prime minister, and the dissolution of parliament mid-term without exploring the formation of an alternative government from within, would not have stood constitutional or judicial scrutiny in more “normal” times. But the fury of the youth on a mass scale and the people’s ire towards political parties who ruled for 19 years with all but zero accountability in mega-corruption cases, have led to the current situation.
Some questions now emerge. Will the government led by PM Sushila Karki be able to hold the mid-term poll on March 5, as announced? What is the use of electing a new parliament if top leaders in the government and the opposition are not tried for corruption? The Gen Z protests, their mishandling by the government leading to 76 deaths, and the trail of devastation have injected a sense of fear in the general public.
While there are over a dozen petitions in the Supreme Court challenging the legality of the present government, political parties, despite a consensus that the country is in a state of unprecedented crisis, are divided about the way forward. The Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist, led by Oli, is the only one seeking the reinstatement of the dissolved parliament. Reinstatement is the only way the UML and the much-discredited Oli can return as influential players. Others seem to be keen on an as-yet-undefined agenda of conciliation to steer the nation out of the crisis.
The Nepali Congress (NC), which was the largest party in the dissolved House, appears more circumspect than others. Its chairman, Sher Bahadur Deuba, whose house was burnt by a mob and who was physically assaulted along with his wife, Arzu Rana Deuba, has read the writing on the wall. He has appointed Purna Bahadur Khadka as the party’s acting President, indicating that he is looking for a dignified exit.
Gopal Man Shrestha, a senior NC leader who was among the signatories to the 12-point agreement in Delhi under the Government of India’s mediation in November 2005, “to end absolute monarchy”, dropped a political bombshell on Sunday. He said the current situation demands that the monarchy is included in “national reconciliation”, as the “politics of exclusion we pursued for 19 years has proved a failure”. Another signatory, Madhav Nepal, has already favoured a review and course correction. Maoist Chief Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ is not yet clear on his party’s next move but is in favour of “all sides” — not “all parties” — coming together to rescue the country.
But it’s not only the internal crisis that is causing a headache for the government. China’s displeasure over the visible involvement of Free Tibet activists during the destruction and violence on the second day of the protests was conveyed by China’s ambassador Chen Song to PM Karki last week. While appreciating how China’s and Nepal’s interests are deeply intertwined, Dr Gao Liang, Deputy Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies in Sichuan University, wrote for Nepali Khabar, “What happened recently in the course of the protest is something that doesn’t make China quite comfortable”.
The US, India and some European countries have assured Karki of support in conducting the polls on time. But much will depend on the cooperation she receives from political parties. Karki hosted a meeting of all political parties on Tuesday, more than six weeks after her takeover. Away from the public glare, she is under pressure from these parties not to launch any investigation into corruption cases against their top leaders. But if Karki concedes, it will be a betrayal of the Gen Z protest.
The Nepal Army, which played a decisive mediatory role between the president, Gen Z protestors and political parties to get Karki to the PM’s post, has promised her full support. For a country that has seen a decade-long insurgency and an incomplete peace process, the failure of political parties to go for a more effective reconciliatory policy will ensure that short-term patchwork will not work.
The writer is the Kathmandu-based contributing editor for The Indian Express
