This week and next, a series of high-profile multilateral summits are set to unfold — the climate change conference in Azerbaijan, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Peru, and the G20 summit in Brazil. These gatherings, however, take place under the shadow of Donald Trump’s recent re-election as US President. Already under strain over the last decade, multilateral institutions now face even greater challenges. Trump’s second term compels India and other nations to reassess their strategies for engaging with global institutions. As the crisis of multilateralism deepens, India may need to devote more attention to “minilateral” groups and coalitions of “like-minded” countries in dealing with global issues.
Trump’s first presidential term (2017-2021) marked a dramatic shift from traditional US foreign policy. His administration questioned the efficacy of multilateralism and prioritised unilateralism. Trump withdrew from key international agreements and organisations, including the Paris Agreement on climate change, Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), UNESCO, WHO, and the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC). Under Trump, US policies helped weaken the World Trade Organisation. These moves signalled a clear departure from the liberal internationalist vision that had long guided US policies. In his inaugural speech at the UN in September 2017, Trump articulated his “America First” doctrine, emphasising national sovereignty over globalism. Unlike Democratic administrations, Trump rejected the notion that the US was responsible for leading global institutions, arguing instead for a foreign policy rooted in national interest.
Critics of multilateralism within the US contend that decades of international engagement have come at a steep cost. They argue that American taxpayers have borne the brunt of globalist policies, prolonged military interventions in the name of securing different regions and preserving a rules-based international order. They also point to job losses stemming from an open global trade system that facilitated a shift in manufacturing from the US to countries like Mexico and China. While the emphasis on efficiency produced windfall profits for US capital, it devastated American communities in industrial towns.
Following Trump’s defeat in 2020, the Biden administration sought to restore US commitment to multilateralism. The US rejoined the Paris Accord, WHO, and re-entered UNESCO. But Trump’s critique of the global trading order endured under Biden. As Trump prepares to return, the domestic backlash against globalism has intensified. With control over both chambers of Congress, Trump’s second term is expected to bring transformative policies that challenge the foundations of multilateralism.
Trump is widely expected to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement again. At home, he has promised to dismantle the range of regulatory constraints on energy development, including on the hydrocarbon sector, imposed by the Biden Administration. He promises to enhance energy production in the US and embark on uninhibited economic growth. Trump underlines the importance of traditional forms of electricity generation needed for the AI industry that guzzles power. Climate activists see these moves as a significant blow to global efforts to combat climate change, undermining international cooperation and reducing financial support for developing nations’ climate initiatives. Trump’s stance is likely to embolden other countries to scale back their commitments, exacerbating global tensions. Several key leaders, including PM Narendra Modi, US President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Brazilian President Lula da Silva, are skipping the climate summit in Azerbaijan.
The APEC forum, created during a period of Sino-US cooperation, now finds itself at the centre of escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing. The forum’s core mission of fostering economic integration across the Pacific has come under fire from Trump. One of his first actions in 2017 was to withdraw from the TPP, a cornerstone of the Obama administration’s Asia Pacific strategy. The Biden administration responded by launching the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), a more flexible arrangement focusing on digital trade, supply chain resilience, clean economy, and clean energy. Unlike the TPP, the IPEF avoids binding commitments on market access. Whether Trump will continue with the IPEF is unclear. However, his proposed 60 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports signal a potential intensification of the US-China trade war. Meanwhile, his administration is likely to ramp up scrutiny of China’s growing economic influence in Latin America. China’s trade and investment links with Latin America will be showcased by President Xi Jinping’s visit to Peru and Brazil to attend the APEC and G20 summits.
Established in 2008 to address the global financial crisis, the G20 has struggled in recent years to maintain its relevance amid deepening geopolitical and economic divides. In Trump’s first term, the US clashed with other members on trade, climate, and migration policies. Although Biden sought to revive multilateral cooperation, achieving a landmark global corporate tax agreement, tensions have persisted, particularly over climate action, modernising financial architecture, debt relief and other development priorities. For India, which has invested heavily in multilateralism in general, and G20 in particular, the upcoming summit offers an opportunity to reassess the forum’s effectiveness. More broadly, PM Modi’s discussions with world leaders should help India rethink its approach to global governance during Trump 2.0.
Multilateralism — economic, political, and institutional — that reached its peak at the turn of the 21st century is now in trouble. While globalists will bemoan the passing of an era, India’s policymakers will have to adapt to the new dynamics. To be sure, global problems need global solutions. But the hopes for collective solutions to our common problems have become politically unrealistic over the last decade. Expect Trump to bury those hopes. Unilateral development of new technologies, bilateralism in trade and economic cooperation, and like-minded coalitions in finding solutions to regional challenges are likely to gain ground in the next few years.
India has already moved in this direction. It has invested in the national development of renewable energy solutions and negotiated new bilateral trade deals. It is now part of several minilateral groups that seek to develop new technologies to address regional and global challenges as well as construct new global norms. These include the Quadrilateral Forum, the Mineral Security Partnership, the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence, and the Artemis Accords. India needs to invest more vigorously in these initiatives until the conditions for productive multilateralism re-emerge in the global arena.
The writer is a contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express
