In the season of global summitry, it’s easy to underestimate the importance of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s visit to India this week. Leadership meetings with German chancellors lack the glamour of summits with the US, the trust that binds Delhi and Moscow, the “grand idees” that mark the French encounters, and the structural tension that animates India’s engagement with China. Yet, the Indo-German summit could be consequential for the bilateral strategic partnership, as well as India’s relations with collective Europe.
In a week marked by simultaneous sessions of the Commonwealth in Samoa, South Pacific, and the expanded BRICS forum in Kazan, Russia, Scholz’s visit might seem a dull affair. The Commonwealth underlines the enduring links between India and the former British Empire. It also holds the possibility that India, now the largest economy in the 54-nation Commonwealth, will help elevate it to its rightful place in the constellation of international organisations. If the Commonwealth is rooted in the past, the BRICS has long been conceived as the future. It might be struggling to overcome internal contradictions, but it’s viewed as the harbinger of the post-Western global order. No wonder it is attracting larger international interest in joining the forum.
Unlike the Russians and the Chinese, the Germans might not be good at selling dreams of a new global order, but they bring solid capabilities that India needs in transforming itself at home and accelerating its global rise. Delhi and Berlin have had a special bond before and after India’s Independence; they have had a formal strategic partnership in place since 2000. But it has not been easy to translate intent into outcomes.
Scholz promises to break from this poor record. The idea that Germany, the most important power in Europe, is ready to reset the Indian relationship amid arguments over Ukraine seems counter-intuitive. After all, India’s reluctance to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine angered many in Europe. India’s purchase of large volumes of discounted oil added to their frustrations.
Yet, as the war has dragged on, there is no doubt that Ukraine has added to the urgency of rethinking German and European relations with India. Meanwhile, in Delhi, Europe has stopped being a step-child in India’s worldview over the last decade. Relations with old powers like Britain, France, Italy as well as powers like Poland are on the upswing. The Nordic, Baltic, Central European, Slavkov, Balkan, and the Euro-Med regions are now among the expanding geographic lexicon of India. If there was a missing link, it was Germany.
Scholz’s visit comes amidst a new German reality — the growing imperatives on Berlin to shed its post World War II geopolitical diffidence. Russian expansionism in Europe, Chinese assertiveness in Asia, the de facto alliance between Moscow and Beijing, and the growing volatility in US policies have together mounted pressures on Berlin to rethink many of its traditional assumptions about Eurasia and the world, and debate the need to take larger regional and global responsibilities.
In a rare, country-specific paper published last week, the German Foreign Office outlined a new strategic approach to India days before Scholz arrives in Delhi. Four ideas stand out.
One, Berlin recognises the growing international salience of India, the “world’s most populous nation and a stable democracy” in the economic and geopolitical domains. Germany wants to “benefit from India’s diverse expertise as a central player in international politics with a prominent position among the countries of the so-called Global South.”
Two, Germany notes the divergence with India on Russia’s war in Ukraine, but recognises the need to build bridges through “dialogue in a spirit of trust and identify joint initiatives, particularly in fields where direct security interests are affected.” Berlin also “welcomes the Indian government’s repeatedly expressed willingness to work to bring about a peaceful end to the war. India can make an important contribution here.”
Three, it underlines the importance of deeper economic ties with India in the increasingly turbulent Indo-Pacific. This is a major break from the tradition of putting “China First” in its Asian economic policy. Reversing four decades of deep commercial engagement with China is not on the cards. But Berlin is determined to diversify its economic relationship away from China, and India is on top of the list of likely partners.
Chancellor Scholz is arriving with a large business delegation and is hopeful that Delhi will make it easier for German companies to expand their investments in India. For Delhi, there could be no better partner in reviving India’s manufacturing sector.
Four, Germany wants to be a strong security partner for India. The full range of defence diplomacy is now on the table when Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets Chancellor Scholz on Thursday. These include consultations between the civilian defence establishments, more military exchanges, reciprocal access arrangements between Indian armed forces and their German counterparts, who are now eager to raise their profile in the Indo-Pacific.
From the Indian perspective, the most important new element is the German promise to help India make weapons at home. Berlin offers to “expand its arms cooperation with India, continue to improve the reliability and predictability of arms export control procedures, and promote and support cooperation between German and Indian arms companies.” The negotiations on the acquisition of submarines from Germany could provide proof of the German commitment to help modernise India’s defence industrial base.
Progress in implementing these ideas is bound to lend geopolitical heft to the Indo-German relationship. In the early 20th century, Indian nationalists turned to a willing Germany to overthrow the British yoke. That did not go very far, as the Anglo-American allies prevailed over Berlin.
Independent India drifted away from the Anglo-Americans during the Cold War. As China’s rise challenges India’s interests, Delhi has moved closer to the US. But there is big room for Europe in India’s calculus. Facing a troublesome China, weakened Russia, and meddlesome America, India could do with a strong European partnership. France is already a valued strategic partner; a new geopolitical connection to Germany will lend balance and stability to India’s great power relations.
The writer is a contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express
