The BJP has officially kept the door open to contest the local body elections in Maharashtra in alliance, but the primary feedback from the ground is that the party should go it alone. The Supreme Court on May 6 directed that the local body elections in the state be notified within four weeks and completed within four months.
“After the SC order, the State Election Commission has begun the poll preparation process. We want the elections to take place within the timeline. There should be no hurdle. If there are issues related to heavy monsoon in some specific areas, an extension can be sought,” Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis said in Pune on May 15.
While the CM insisted that the BJP was committed to contesting the elections in alliance, he also left the door open for the parties to contest individually. “We are keen on alliances with the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). We want to contest as Mahayuti. However, if the alliances don’t work in some local bodies, we will ensure there is no acrimony when it comes to contesting alone against each other. Post-poll, if the situation so arises, we will again come together to keep the Opposition out of power.”
The CM’s comments indicated that the party expects seat-sharing not to work out in some of the civic bodies. According to BJP insiders, the primary feedback from the party’s units in Mumbai, Pune, Nagpur, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Kalyan-Dombivli, Nashik, Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, Solapur, Mira-Bhayandar, Amravati, Akola, Panvel, Sangli, Ulhasnagar, Jalgaon, and Dhule is that the party should contest the elections alone.
“If the alliance is must for some reason, our formula must be 50:30:20,” said a BJP leader, indicating that the party will want to contest half of the seats in such a scenario, the Sena 30%, and the NCP 20%. “Any compromise on this is unacceptable as our party is the largest party with 137 MLAs and 1.5 crore members.”
In the previous civic body polls, held between 2015 and 2018, the BJP won 1,099 of the 2,736 seats across 27 civic bodies with a vote share of 31.3%. The Shiv Sena was the next largest party with 489 seats and an 18.49% vote share, followed by the Congress at 439 seats and 15.53% vote share and the NCP at 294 seats and an 11.06% vote share. The rest of the seats went to smaller outfits and Independents.
In the all-important Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) polls in 2017, the BJP, with 82 seats, was just behind the undivided Shiv Sena that had 84 seats. Though the two parties were still allies back then, they contested the elections on their own. With the Sena a divided force now, the BJP believes it can consolidate the gains in a majority of the municipal corporations, including the BMC.
“We would like to retain the alliance in the polls. But in local bodies, you cannot impose decisions from the top,” said state BJP president and Revenue Minister Chandrashekhar Bawankule. “You have to consider the sentiments of the local units and the grassroots workers. Based on the feedback from our local units and weighing all factors on merit, our top leadership at the state and the Centre will take the final call.”
“In elections, we will have to watch how the Opposition will play its cards. At this moment, we know the Opposition is neither united nor strong. We have to respond to believe we have an edge,” said BJP insiders.
However, the BJP’s strategists and poll managers are on guard about the party’s cadre being overconfident, something that dented it in the Lok Sabha polls last year. Party leaders have instructed local units that even if they go up against one of their allies in some places, decorum must be maintained.
The Shiv Sena led by Deputy CM Eknath Shinde is also ready to contest on its own, with party leaders saying that their focus will be on the civic bodies where the party was strong before the split. The Sena’s strategy, according to them, will be to make deeper inroads in select local bodies to further weaken the Shiv Sena (UBT) of Uddhav Thackeray and consolidate the gains it made in the Assembly polls last year.
Among the areas where it is set to focus are Thane, the home turf of Shinde, Kalyan-Dombivli, Nashik, Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, Navi Mumbai, Malegaon, and Bhiwandi. This means that there are high chances of the Sena and the BJP squaring off at least in Kalyan-Dombivli and Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar. In Mumbai, the party reckons that the big fight will be between the BJP and the Sena (UBT) but has not completely given up on it. Party insiders said they were still trying to get the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) of Raj Thackeray over to its side and make inroads in the capital.
However, Raj Thackeray, who in recent weeks has also been linked to a patch-up with his estranged cousin Uddhav, has told his party workers not to depend on alliances and instead get back to working on the ground. “Don’t rely on any pre-poll alliances. Leave all that to me. You get back to the preparations,” he said on Friday.
