Special personal warmth from President Emmanuel Macron, the unprecedented protocol, and the ambitious strategic goals that defined Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Paris last week herald a new phase in India’s relations with France. The bold vision for the new phase outlined by Modi and Macron rests on three pillars — defending security and sovereignty, deepening cooperation on global issues, and developing stronger engagement between the two peoples. The first involves consequential plans for the co-development and co-production of advanced weapons systems, including submarines and fighter jet engines, deeper engagement in space and other advanced technologies, and regional security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. The second saw the expansion of Franco-Indian collaboration in countering climate change and developing green technologies. The third saw the decision to raise the number of Indian students in France to 30,000 by the end of this decade and give them attractive post-study work visas. France will also partner with India in building a new national museum in Delhi.
Holding up this impressive bilateral agenda is a consequential shift in India’s great power relations — that Paris has replaced Moscow as India’s most trusted partner over the last 25 years. Whether it was the refusal to punish Delhi in the wake of the 1998 nuclear tests or blocking China from considering the Kashmir question on the United Nations Security Council agenda after India changed the province’s territorial status quo in August 2019, Paris proved to be the most valuable and steadfast ally of India. Although Delhi continues to enjoy a stable relationship with Moscow, two factors are casting a shadow over Indo-Russian ties. One is Russia’s difficult internal and external situation after its invasion of Ukraine, and the other is its tighter embrace of China. But what about Washington, which has emerged as Delhi’s most valuable partner? To be sure, Delhi’s economic and security ties with Washington have become deep and wide in recent years. Modi’s Washington visit last month highlighted expansive new strategic possibilities in the days ahead. Yet, there is no gainsaying that the Indian establishment remains a wee bit wary about potential volatility in the engagement with the US, marked by Washington’s temptation to meddle in India’s domestic politics. Delhi’s comfort level with Paris is much higher, which lends a unique significance to India’s relations with France.
For all practical purposes, then, France has replaced Russia as the sheet anchor of India’s “strategic autonomy”. During the Cold War, India turned to the Soviet Union to balance against the Western alliances in its neighbourhood with Pakistan and China. After the Cold War, Delhi’s engagement with the West grew rapidly. Yet, Delhi clung to Moscow as a hedge against potential difficulties with Washington. Over the last decade, China’s rise and assertion and Beijing’s alliance with Moscow have nudged India and the US closer than ever. As it builds a strong partnership with the US to cope with the Chinese challenge, India is right to bet on the French connection to maintain its room for manoeuvre in the unfolding era of turbulence in great power relations.
