The CPM-led Left Front has clinched a seat-sharing deal with the Congress for the assembly elections in Tripura, a first for the state where the parties have been long-standing rivals. The CPM and Congress have been the two poles of electoral politics in Tripura until the 2018 polls when the BJP won office in Agartala: That election saw the BJP win 36 seats and nearly 44 per cent votes in a House of 60 MLAs, up from 5 per cent votes and 0 seats in the previous election. The rise of TIPRA Motha, however, could upset the calculations of both the BJP and the Left-Congress alliance, especially if it enters the contest as a third alternative — TIPRA Motha, led by Tripura royal and former state Congress chief Pradyot Debbarma appears poised to corner the tribal vote, which is an influential factor in the 20 reserved seats and more.
The Left-Congress alliance is premised on the hope that a united Opposition could halt the march of the BJP in Tripura. Congress, which had drawn a blank in the 2018 assembly polls, saw a resurgence in the 2019 general election, when its vote share rose to 25 per cent from 1.79 per cent in the previous election and finished behind the BJP in both Lok Sabha seats from the state. Both the CPM and Congress expect that their combined vote share of nearly 43 per cent in the general election could check the BJP, which won 49 per cent votes. Given the small size of Tripura constituencies — around 45,000 voters — coalitions can make a difference. The BJP’s wariness in the face of a demanding electorate was evident in its decision to replace its chief minister just nine months ahead of elections: Biplab Kumar Deb was replaced by Manik Saha in May last year. The BJP success in the last two elections is also owed to the alliance it had with the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) — IPFT has since disintegrated and its rumps are seeking a merger with the TIPRA Motha. The BJP’s spectacular rise was enabled by a shift in the Congress vote base, which was also anti-CPM. The state has been wracked by political violence in the past five years with the CPM and the Congress leaders and cadres at the receiving end.
The Left-Congress seat arrangement is as much a survival tactic as it is a political alliance. A similar tactical arrangement that the CPM and Congress worked out in West Bengal recently had failed to attract voters, who preferred the BJP or Trinamool Congress in polarised elections. Tripura is another state, and this is another time, of course.
