Written by Arundhati Sharma and Mukesh Kumar Srivastava
India took over the G20 presidency on December 1, 2022. Today, the world is embroiled in socioeconomic and environmental crises. It has high expectations from India, making the presidency A high-stakes one. It is important that we embrace the motto, One Earth, One Family and One Future. As the presidency reaches its halfway point, some questions need answering: What are the reasons behind these growing expectations? What are the stakes and priorities in building a shared global future? How are they aligned with the hopes and expectations of the world, particularly developing countries? What major progress have different sectors seen so far? What are the struggles that India needs to overcome during its presidency?
There are a multitude of reasons for the growing expectations of both G20 member and non-member countries. First, with our positive economic growth trajectory, it is natural to expect that India will contribute substantially to the global economy. The Economic Survey 2022-23 predicts that India will witness a GDP growth of 6.0-6.8 per cent in 2023-24 depending on economic and political developments at the global level. This is reinforced by the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) and World Bank growth projections of the Indian economy. They estimate a growth of 5.9-6.3 per cent in 2023-24.
Second, India’s standing among G20 members in relation to the size of its economy has significantly increased over the years. As the fifth-largest economy in the world, India is seen as a proactive player capable of contributing to global politics.
Third, India’s capability to effectively converge its national interests with the imperatives of global economic integration as well as synergising the needs of developed and developing countries is well recognised. In addition, for the Global South, India’s presidency is seen as an opportunity with immense potential to address developmental needs, particularly with three countries, the troika of Indonesia, India, and Brazil, representing consecutive G20 presidencies.
The stakes of India’s G20 presidency have grown proportionately with these growing expectations. India has taken an inclusive approach to underlining its G20 goals, one that is reflective of the common interests and challenges of both developed and developing countries. Coinciding with India’s Amrit Kaal initiative, the main priorities of India’s G20 presidency converge with both developed and developing countries. These include LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment) focused on building sustainable practices through green development, climate finance and technology; accelerated, inclusive and resilient growth; accelerating progress on SDGs, technological transformation and digital public infrastructure; women-led development; and promoting multilateralism.
Simultaneously, India’s performance and initiatives to attain these commitments are consistent with the G20 commitments and Sustainable Development Goals. For instance, India’s efforts to integrate sustainable development in domestic policies and promote international development through “collective and individual efforts” at home and abroad are in sync with the G20 Action Plan on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development adopted in 2016.
Similarly, India’s efforts on climate action have been consistent with G20 commitments, marking a visible shift to a more energy-efficient pathway attracting much admiration worldwide, such as the transition to renewable energy at home and the promotion of multilateralism through the International Solar Alliance. On technological transformation and digital inclusiveness, India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) has become an internationally recognised digital payment interface which reinforces G20’s financial inclusion priority.
India’s major struggle in its role is to balance competing interests and build a shared global future, particularly given bleak global economic growth and geopolitical crises, marked by asymmetries. Economically, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the global economy and development has also been a growing concern. The IMF’s WEO April 2023 forecasts that the global economy will be uncertain again on account of turmoil in the financial sector, high inflation, effects of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and three years of the Covid pandemic.
Geopolitically, India’s initiative in trying to accommodate the opposing views on the Russia-Ukraine conflict is increasingly seen as a challenge to India’s presidency. Russia and China expressed reservations about including Ukraine-related issues in the Bali Declaration in the G20 foreign minister’s meeting held in New Delhi in March. Nevertheless, India played an important role in forging a consensus on the G20 communique in Indonesia.
The success of India’s presidency will depend on its ability to deliver on G20 commitments even with opposing interests. So far, with over 100 meetings involving more than 12,000 delegates from different countries, India has been able to bring stakeholders to the discussion table and ensure progress on major commitments such as climate change, digital public infrastructure, inclusive growth and women-led development. For instance, there was a consensus on a common framework for digital public infrastructure including digital identity systems, digital payment systems, and consent-based data-sharing systems. Similarly, on climate change, the delegates agreed on global action for holistic management of water resources, land degradation and restoration of ecosystems. To ensure the participation of women, the promotion of entrepreneurship and leadership among women has been prioritised.
Given the asymmetry in capabilities and resources, how India can leverage the G20 presidency and come out with a successful Leaders’ Declaration for building a shared global future is the challenge. Meanwhile, India can offer lessons from its experiments and experiences. These include the promotion of nature-based solutions through traditional practices. Over the next months, it will be worth observing how India will convert the expectations and challenges in front of it to reach a consensus on the various commitments agreed upon in various meetings held so far and come out with a Leaders’ Declaration.
Sharma teaches at the Department of Political Science, Central University of Himachal Pradesh.
Srivastava is Senior Consultant at Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR), New Delhi.
(Views expressed are personal)
