Even as US President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan to end the war in Gaza is lauded across the world as a promising step towards peace, the road ahead is long and paved with disruptions.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has, throughout the war, pandered to his far-right allies who keep his government afloat. Coalition partners like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir have already made clear, via multiple statements and interviews, their desire to achieve some very specific war aims: Annexing both Gaza and the West Bank, driving out Palestinians and establishing Jewish settlements. They have also been categorically opposed to any role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, and needless to say, any pathway towards Palestinian statehood.
Netanyahu has tried his best to frame the proposal as an Israeli victory, saying that his country’s troops would remain in Gaza even after the hostages are freed, without a proper timeline for withdrawal. His allies are not buying it, though. Ben Gvir said that his party would not be a part of “a national defeat” and “eternal disgrace.” Smotrich, too, was strongly critical of the condition to halt the IDF’s offensive while details of the Trump plan are worked out.
Trump’s plan, therefore, puts Netanyahu in a bind like never before. On the one hand, he can hardly say no to the plan being imposed by Israel’s most important ally and cheered on by most of the world. As reported by Axios, when he told Trump that Hamas’s response is nothing to celebrate, the US President hit back, “I don’t know why you’re always so f***ing negative. This is a win. Take it.”
On the other hand, going ahead with the deal puts Netanyahu’s government at risk, and with it, his ability to continue delaying trials on multiple corruption charges in Israel, and not to forget, the protests in Israel against the proposed reform aimed to give the state full control of the Supreme Court or court decisions. An end to the war also means a public reckoning with his own failings with respect to Hamas’s October 7, 2023, terror attack.
Recall that in March, when Israel abandoned the January ceasefire with Hamas, Netanyahu blamed it all on Hamas’ refusal to release more hostages before negotiations on ending the war proceeded, something that was not part of the January agreement.
In June, Israel attacked Iran despite the ongoing negotiations between Iran and Israel’s principal ally, the US, over the future of Tehran’s nuclear programme (reportedly, a deal was close).
And most recently, the September 9 strike on Qatar, targeting Hamas negotiators, was by far the most stunning disruption by Israel. Ironically, it is this attack and the shockwaves it sent across the Arab world that arguably pushed Trump to accelerate plans for peace in Gaza.
What Netanyahu will do from here is hard to predict. He finds himself trapped between domestic political concerns and geopolitical pressure from Trump, Europe and the Arab states. A possible response, then, is that he stalls and accuses Hamas of not agreeing to the terms, and convinces Trump that he must “finish the job.” In fact, according to NPR, in order to prevent Smotrich and other far-right politicians from quitting in protest, the Trump plan may not even be brought to a vote in his cabinet.
The plan, therefore, might still fall apart, and there is enough evidence from this year alone not to be too optimistic about any plan until it has been fully implemented. What is reasonably clear is that Netanyahu would invite further global isolation for himself (he took a longer route to the US to bypass arrest in Europe), his government (Smotrich and Ben-Gvir are sanctioned and banned from entering certain countries) and his country, should the war go on and the Palestinian people endure further misery.
saptarishi.basak@expressindia.com
