As early trends in the outcome of the Bihar assembly elections started pouring in on November 24,pointing to a landslide win for the ruling coalition headed by Nitish Kumar,Janata Dal (United)s chief spokesman Shivanand Tiwari made a perceptive point on NDTV. According to him,if the BJP-led National Democratic Alliancenotice that in Bihar alone a state-level alliance of the BJP is still known as NDA,and this isnt without significancefollows the Bihar model at the national level,it has a fair chance of forming a government in New Delhi after the next parliamentary elections. As one of the panelists on the discussion,I was asked by anchorperson Vikram Chandra about my reaction to Tiwaris advice to the BJP. I said,the Bihar model is actually the successful application of the Atal Bihari model.
Atal Bihari Vajpayee,one of the greatest orators India has heard and one of the greatest prime ministers India has seen,is,sadly,not a man in action today due to ill-health. However,his wisdom has been put into action in Bihar with astounding results. Not only has the Atal Bihari model given the NDA in Bihar a vastly bigger mandate,raising hopes of one of Indias poorest states performing a developmental leap forward in the years ahead,but it has also suddenly put life into a possibility that pundits had all but written off: the successor to UPA II at the Centre might not be UPA III,but NDA II.
Vajpayees wisdom,the result of decades of reflection,struggle and experimentation,has four main elements: inclusive politics,development,good governance and credible leadership. He had realised long ago that a formidable party like the Congress,which enjoyedand continues to enjoyso many natural advantages,could not be defeated without learning from its chief source of strength: its appeal to all sections of Indias diverse society. He,loyally assisted by L K Advani,expanded the social and geographical base of BJP,the party he had founded. However,despite notable successes in this regard,his party could not match either the Congress partys pan-India presence or its diversity index. He,therefore,understood the inescapability of alliance politics long before the Congress,which used to scorn it earlier,later accepted it out of compulsion.
Not many people today remember that Nitish Kumar,along with George Fernandes (both representing the Samata Party then),attended a historic BJP convention in Mumbai in 1995,at a time when the BJP was considered untouchable,and thus paved the way for the formation of the NDA government in 1998. He had enormous respect for Vajpayees wise and mature leadership. Similarly,Vajpayee admired Nitish Kumars balanced approach to social and political issues and saw great potential in him. As the chief minister of Bihar,he emulated Vajpayee and made development the main plank of governance. This helped him overcome the highly divisive caste politics in the state.
In this hour of victory,the BJP should ask itself an important question: why has Nitish Kumar succeeded by combining alliance politics with the development plank,whereas the same strategy failed to give Vajpayee a renewed mandate in 2004? The answer lies in the social dimension of inclusive politics. Specifically,Nitish Kumars NDA has been able to secure significant votes of Muslims in Bihar,whereas Vajpayees NDA failed this crucial test to its peril. Vajpayee himself had very well understood the importance of social inclusivity. He knew both the limitations and the illegitimacy of following a narrow Hindutva agenda that kept Indias large Muslim community beyond the pale of the BJPs care and electoral calculus. However,he had his own limitations in radically changing a party that was,and continues to be,remote-controlled by the RSS. BJP-baiters constant propaganda that it is an anti-Muslim party,and the effect of this propaganda on the voting behaviour of Muslims,further compounded his difficulties. Finally,his agenda of inclusive politics suffered a huge setback after the communal conflagration in Gujarat,leaving him a broken man and reducing the NDA to a pale shadow of itself.
The Bihar verdict has now given the BJPs national leadership an opportunity to revert to the strengths of the Atal Bihari model,without repeating the costly follies committed by his government. Two follies must be mentioned here. One was its weak approach to fighting corruption,which has besmirched the BJPs image in many states. The other was the failure to give a pro-poor orientation to its development plank. Bihar has also underscored a critical weakness of the BJP at the national level: lack of a credible leader with a pan-India appeal who can win elections. If the BJP and NDA learn all these right lessons,the prospects of UPA III will surely become dimmer as we approach 2014.
sudheenkulkarni@gmail.com
