In the late 1940s and early 1950s, the United States was convulsed by the “Who lost China?” debate. A political uproar occurred in the American foreign policy establishment following the Communist takeover of China in October 1949, when the People’s Republic of China was declared by Mao Zedong after defeating the nationalist forces of the Kuomintang, led by Chiang Kai-shek, who fled to Taiwan. This was seen by many Americans as a major failure of US foreign policy and a catastrophic blow in the early Cold War struggle against communism.
A few years from now, if New Delhi finds itself in the embrace of China and Russia and alienated from America, might there be a new blame game in Washington DC, with finger-pointing American pundits angrily asking the question, “Who lost India?”
President Donald Trump is acting as if he doesn’t care. But by any measure, the US-India relationship has been one of the most consequential strategic partnerships of the 21st century. From defence cooperation and technology-sharing, to joint efforts in the Quad to secure a free and open Indo-Pacific, Washington and New Delhi have built a foundation of mutual respect and shared interests.
Yet today, that foundation is cracking under the weight of Trump’s punitive tariffs and dismissive rhetoric — and the resultant diplomatic friction. India, reeling in shock from finding itself the most highly tariffed country in the world — at 50 per cent, when China faces only 30 per cent and India’s other competitors in the US market are between 15 and 20 per cent — is understandably strengthening its dialogue with Moscow and Beijing. The grave has already been dug for the burial of the much-vaunted “strategic partnership” that had defined the Indo-US relationship for the past quarter of a century.
But it’s not too late to salvage the partnership – if Washington wants to. It’s time for the United States to abandon its path of confrontation and restore the strategic partnership that both nations desperately need — and the world benefits from.
As of midnight on the night of August 26-27, the US doubled tariffs on Indian goods, affecting over $48 billion in exports (out of a total Indian export list to America of $87 billion). These measures hit critical sectors like textiles, gems and jewellery, leather, seafood (especially shrimp), and auto components, while — so far — exempting pharmaceuticals and electronics. The rationale is based on India’s continued purchase of Russian oil and military equipment, which Washington claims indirectly funds Russia’s war in Ukraine — a charge New Delhi firmly rejects as unjustified, especially since China buys far more oil and gas from Russia, and EU imports $67 billion worth of other items from there, while neither faces comparable levels of tariffs.
But these tariffs are not just economic penalties — they’re political signals. And they’re being read loud and clear in New Delhi: Strategic autonomy is being punished, rather than (as heretofore) respected.
The consequences are severe. Indian exporters are losing competitiveness, risking thousands of jobs in hubs like Tiruppur, Surat, and Visakhapatnam. US buyers are already shifting to suppliers in Vietnam, Ecuador, Thailand and Turkey, while American consumers face higher prices. Investment sentiment in India is faltering, and capital expenditure decisions are being delayed. A lakh and a half jewellery-workers have been laid off in Surat, and garment workers in Tiruppur and shrimp exporters in Vizag are looking at job losses as well.
This is a lose-lose scenario. The longer it persists, the deeper the damage to bilateral trust and economic resilience will be.
The irony is that despite the trade war, defence cooperation remains robust. The US-India COMPACT initiative, launched in February 2025, aims to deepen military collaboration, co-produce advanced equipment, and conduct joint exercises like “Tiger Triumph”. Plans for a new 10-year Framework for Major Defence Partnership are underway, and India is in advanced negotiations to purchase major US military equipment, including the Stryker armoured fighting vehicle and the Javelin anti-tank guided missile. But these efforts are being undermined by the tariffs, which signal distrust and coercion.
India is not just a trading partner — it is a pivotal player in the Indo-Pacific. Alienating New Delhi risks weakening the Quad, whose summit India is supposed to be hosting later this year, destabilising regional security, and pushing India closer to the US’s adversaries, like China and Russia.
The US must recognise that strategic autonomy is not defiance — it’s sovereignty. Punishing India for its energy choices or defence procurement decisions, which any country can only do based on its vital national interests, is shortsighted and counterproductive. Instead, Washington should:
India is not just a partner of convenience — it is a partner of consequence. The US must treat it as such. The current path of confrontation threatens to unravel two decades of strategic convergence. It’s time to recalibrate, restore trust, and rebuild the partnership that can shape the future of global stability.
The writer is Congress MP (Lok Sabha) for Thiruvananthapuram
