Written by Dhananjay Tripathi & Tabshir Shams
In the last few years, the political landscape of South Asia has been notably turbulent. Leaders such as Gotabaya Rajapaksa in Sri Lanka, Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh, and K P Sharma Oli in Nepal have faced public backlash, leading to their resignation from office. These outcomes once seemed unthinkable. The question that comes to everybody’s mind is what accounts for this sudden shift in the politics of these countries?
Firstly, South Asia, in demographic terms, is a young region. According to the World Bank, there are over 700 million youth under the age of 24 in South Asia, and more than one million youth in the region are expected to enter the labour force every month until 2030. As the demographic bulge is expected to peak around 2040, two things remain crucial for the story of South Asia: Good education and better employment opportunities for its youth.
As was seen in the recent Gen-Z uprising in Nepal, where the youth unemployment rate, according to the World Bank, is 20.8 per cent. This resentment towards the government in Nepal is understandable, especially in the context of the corruption cases that have come to light. The immediate catalyst for the protests was the government’s ban on social media, which many viewed as an infringement on free speech. When we examine the situation within the broader context of South Asia, a concerning pattern emerges. Typically, a populist government gains widespread support, only to later disappoint the masses. This disappointment often leads to significant uprisings and ultimately results in a change of regime. We saw this pattern during the Aragalaya protests in Sri Lanka in 2022, the July Revolution in Bangladesh in 2024, and now the Gen Z protest in Nepal. Different characters, but similar script.
Secondly, there are a few ingredients that are unique to South Asia, which make a similar dish every time, no matter what the altitude, how salty the water or how humid the weather. The colonial struggle against the British in South Asia is distinguished by its mass participation. A brief exploration of the political history of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal reveals a strong awareness of rights among the people of these countries, and mass mobilisation is not a recent or unheard phenomenon. The protests and mass uprisings in South Asia are, therefore, more organic and palatable.
Finally, in the last decade, populist governments of these states were seen as more closed towards the general public. We can also understand these political uprisings by engaging with Barrington Moore’s work, Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. Moore argues that poverty and economic distress are not enough to spark a large-scale protest or transition into a democratic society. There should be a perception that suffering is unjust and avoidable, and the presence of an awakened class of citizens. Economic distress, poverty, and systemic inequality have plagued South Asia since the birth of its states, but people have placed their faith in the governments. However, their patience waned in recent years, and they decided to protest against the incompetence of the governments.
In Sri Lanka in 2022, out of a population of 22 million, it was mainly the youth who poured into the streets and raided the Presidential Palace. They were disgruntled with the government’s mishandling of the economy, the rampant corruption, and the depletion of the forex reserves. The Sri Lankan youth became immensely disillusioned with the politics of the Rajapaksa family and thus decided to overthrow the regime. A similar disillusionment with institutions and contemporary politics was also seen in the Bangladesh protest in July 2024, wherein the quota system — which reserved 56 per cent of positions in government services, mainly for the descendants of people who fought in the freedom struggle of 1971 — became a massive impediment to the youth trying to get jobs while already struggling with unemployment. The question of the fairness of the election won by the Awami League in 2014, 2018, and then in 2024 agitated the youth, who were already on the brink, causing them to erupt. The corruption, nepotism, suppression of dissent, and violent clampdown on the protestors by the Awami League government were the ingredients of a similar concoction seen in Nepal this month.
For governments in South Asia, the way forward is not easy. With these successful uprisings, there will be enough pressure on every future government in these countries and beyond. Thus, two important measures can be of great help in meeting the aspirations of the people. The first is to promote greater transparency in the functioning of the government by strengthening the democratic institutions. The other relevant point is not only to maintain the economic growth but to translate it into economic development by creating more jobs in each of these countries. In this volatile economic world order, achieving better growth is a daunting task; however, it is not so difficult in the South Asian context. The region’s unimpressive record of regional trade leaves a broader scope for improvement, aiding regional growth and helping governments across South Asia. The World Bank estimates that South Asia has the potential to increase its trade which “currently totals just $23 billion — far below an estimated value of at least $67 billion”. In conclusion, regionalism can provide hope if the governments of the region recognise its value, overcome their political differences, and collaborate for the betterment of South Asians.
Tripathi teaches International Relations & Shams is pursuing his MA in International Relations, Department of International Relations, South Asian University, New Delhi
